Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region
Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Springer
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149337 |
| _version_ | 1855520321691451392 |
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| author | Siabi, E. K. Awafo, E. A. Kabobah, A. T. Derkyi, N. S. A. Akpoti, Komlavi Anornu, G. K. Yazdanie, M. |
| author_browse | Akpoti, Komlavi Anornu, G. K. Awafo, E. A. Derkyi, N. S. A. Kabobah, A. T. Siabi, E. K. Yazdanie, M. |
| author_facet | Siabi, E. K. Awafo, E. A. Kabobah, A. T. Derkyi, N. S. A. Akpoti, Komlavi Anornu, G. K. Yazdanie, M. |
| author_sort | Siabi, E. K. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. The study employed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models in simulating climate extreme indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over West Africa between 1979 and 2059 as exemplified by the Greater Accra region. The study observed a generally weak drought in the historical period and expected to intensify especially under SSP585 in Greater Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend under the SSPs. Similarly, the overall projected trend of CDD over West Africa reveals an increase signifying a more frequent and longer drought in the future. The flood indices revealed a surge in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events under the SSPs in the region. For instance, R99pTOT and Rx5days are expected to significantly increase under the SSPs with intensification under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. A similar trend has been projected across West Africa, especially along the Guinean coast. The study foresees a gradual and intensifying rise in heatwave indices over the Greater Accra region. The warming and cooling indices reveal an increasing and decreasing trend respectively in the historical period as well as under the SSPs particularly within urban centers like Accra and Tema. Most West African countries are projected to observe more frequent warm days and nights with cold nights and days becoming less frequent. Expected effects of future climate extreme indices pose potential threats to the water, food, and energy systems as well as trigger recurrent floods and droughts over Greater Accra. The findings of the study are expected to inform climate policies and the nationally determined contribution of the Paris Agreement as well as address the sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) and 13 (Climate action) in West Africa. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace149337 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1493372025-12-08T09:54:28Z Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region Siabi, E. K. Awafo, E. A. Kabobah, A. T. Derkyi, N. S. A. Akpoti, Komlavi Anornu, G. K. Yazdanie, M. climate prediction extreme weather events drought flooding heatwaves climate change urban development climate models hydrological modelling trends sustainable development goals goal 11 sustainable cities and communities goal 13 climate action policies Climate change leading to Climate extremes in the twenty-first century is more evident in megacities across the world, especially in West Africa. The Greater Accra region is one of the most populated regions in West Africa. As a result, the region has become more susceptible to climate extremes such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts. The study employed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models in simulating climate extreme indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) over West Africa between 1979 and 2059 as exemplified by the Greater Accra region. The study observed a generally weak drought in the historical period and expected to intensify especially under SSP585 in Greater Accra. For instance, continuous dry days (CDD) reveal an increasing trend under the SSPs. Similarly, the overall projected trend of CDD over West Africa reveals an increase signifying a more frequent and longer drought in the future. The flood indices revealed a surge in the intensity and duration of extreme precipitation events under the SSPs in the region. For instance, R99pTOT and Rx5days are expected to significantly increase under the SSPs with intensification under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. A similar trend has been projected across West Africa, especially along the Guinean coast. The study foresees a gradual and intensifying rise in heatwave indices over the Greater Accra region. The warming and cooling indices reveal an increasing and decreasing trend respectively in the historical period as well as under the SSPs particularly within urban centers like Accra and Tema. Most West African countries are projected to observe more frequent warm days and nights with cold nights and days becoming less frequent. Expected effects of future climate extreme indices pose potential threats to the water, food, and energy systems as well as trigger recurrent floods and droughts over Greater Accra. The findings of the study are expected to inform climate policies and the nationally determined contribution of the Paris Agreement as well as address the sustainable development goal 11 (Sustainable cities) and 13 (Climate action) in West Africa. 2024-07-29 2024-07-31T15:23:14Z 2024-07-31T15:23:14Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149337 en Open Access Springer Siabi, E. K.; Awafo, E. A.; Kabobah, A. T.; Derkyi, N. S. A.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Anornu, G. K.; Yazdanie, M. 2024. Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region. Discover Sustainability, 5:167. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00352-w] |
| spellingShingle | climate prediction extreme weather events drought flooding heatwaves climate change urban development climate models hydrological modelling trends sustainable development goals goal 11 sustainable cities and communities goal 13 climate action policies Siabi, E. K. Awafo, E. A. Kabobah, A. T. Derkyi, N. S. A. Akpoti, Komlavi Anornu, G. K. Yazdanie, M. Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region |
| title | Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region |
| title_full | Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region |
| title_short | Quantifying future climate extreme indices: implications for sustainable urban development in West Africa, with a focus on the greater Accra Region |
| title_sort | quantifying future climate extreme indices implications for sustainable urban development in west africa with a focus on the greater accra region |
| topic | climate prediction extreme weather events drought flooding heatwaves climate change urban development climate models hydrological modelling trends sustainable development goals goal 11 sustainable cities and communities goal 13 climate action policies |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149337 |
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