Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests
Approximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 were attributable to agricultural expansion, making food production the leading direct driver of deforestation. While previous studies have focused on the interaction between human and environmental systems, limited research has...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Nature Portfolio
2024
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149225 |
| _version_ | 1855529379053961216 |
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| author | Sylvester, Janelle M. Gutierrez Zapata, Diana Maria Perez Marulanda, Lisset Vanegas Cubillos, Martha Bruun, Thilde Bech Mertz, Ole Castro-Nunez, Augusto |
| author_browse | Bruun, Thilde Bech Castro-Nunez, Augusto Gutierrez Zapata, Diana Maria Mertz, Ole Perez Marulanda, Lisset Sylvester, Janelle M. Vanegas Cubillos, Martha |
| author_facet | Sylvester, Janelle M. Gutierrez Zapata, Diana Maria Perez Marulanda, Lisset Vanegas Cubillos, Martha Bruun, Thilde Bech Mertz, Ole Castro-Nunez, Augusto |
| author_sort | Sylvester, Janelle M. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Approximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 were attributable to agricultural expansion, making food production the leading direct driver of deforestation. While previous studies have focused on the interaction between human and environmental systems, limited research has explored deforestation from a food system perspective. This study analyzes the drivers of deforestation in 40 tropical and subtropical countries (2004–2021) through the lenses of consumption/demand, production/supply and trade/distribution using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Our models explained a substantial portion of deforestation variability globally (R2 = 0.74) and in Asia (R2 = 0.81) and Latin America (R2 = 0.73). The results indicate that trade- and demand-side dynamics, specifically foreign direct investments and urban population growth, play key roles in influencing deforestation trends at these scales, suggesting that food system-based interventions could be effective in mitigating deforestation. Conversely, the model for Africa showed weaker explanatory power (R2 = 0.30), suggesting that factors beyond the food system may play a larger role in this region. Our findings highlight the importance of targeting trade- and demand-side dynamics to reduce deforestation and how interventions within the food system could synergistically contribute to achieving sustainable development goals, such as climate action, life on land and zero hunger. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace149225 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| publisherStr | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1492252025-11-11T18:53:17Z Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests Sylvester, Janelle M. Gutierrez Zapata, Diana Maria Perez Marulanda, Lisset Vanegas Cubillos, Martha Bruun, Thilde Bech Mertz, Ole Castro-Nunez, Augusto food systems deforestation urbanization sustainable development goals tropical forests agricultural extension Approximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 were attributable to agricultural expansion, making food production the leading direct driver of deforestation. While previous studies have focused on the interaction between human and environmental systems, limited research has explored deforestation from a food system perspective. This study analyzes the drivers of deforestation in 40 tropical and subtropical countries (2004–2021) through the lenses of consumption/demand, production/supply and trade/distribution using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Our models explained a substantial portion of deforestation variability globally (R2 = 0.74) and in Asia (R2 = 0.81) and Latin America (R2 = 0.73). The results indicate that trade- and demand-side dynamics, specifically foreign direct investments and urban population growth, play key roles in influencing deforestation trends at these scales, suggesting that food system-based interventions could be effective in mitigating deforestation. Conversely, the model for Africa showed weaker explanatory power (R2 = 0.30), suggesting that factors beyond the food system may play a larger role in this region. Our findings highlight the importance of targeting trade- and demand-side dynamics to reduce deforestation and how interventions within the food system could synergistically contribute to achieving sustainable development goals, such as climate action, life on land and zero hunger. 2024-07-16 2024-07-24T10:33:23Z 2024-07-24T10:33:23Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149225 en Open Access application/pdf Nature Portfolio Sylvester, J.M.; Gutierrez Zapata, D.M.; Perez Marulanda, L.; Vanegas Cubillos, M.; Bruun, T.B.; Mertz, O.; Castro-Nunez, A. (2024) Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests. Scientific Reports 14: 15179. ISSN: 2045-2322 |
| spellingShingle | food systems deforestation urbanization sustainable development goals tropical forests agricultural extension Sylvester, Janelle M. Gutierrez Zapata, Diana Maria Perez Marulanda, Lisset Vanegas Cubillos, Martha Bruun, Thilde Bech Mertz, Ole Castro-Nunez, Augusto Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| title | Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| title_full | Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| title_short | Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| title_sort | analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests |
| topic | food systems deforestation urbanization sustainable development goals tropical forests agricultural extension |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149225 |
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