Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility
In the 1990s, policy debates focused on global price levels and whether they were too low. Two recent food price spikes, in 2008 and 2011, have led to renewed concerns about the impact of high prices and shifted the focus back to food price volatility. The effects of changes in price trends on food...
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2016
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148602 |
| _version_ | 1855539557147082752 |
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| author | Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio |
| author_browse | Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio |
| author_facet | Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio |
| author_sort | Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In the 1990s, policy debates focused on global price levels and whether they were too low. Two recent food price spikes, in 2008 and 2011, have led to renewed concerns about the impact of high prices and shifted the focus back to food price volatility. The effects of changes in price trends on food production and food consumption (a discussion about price levels) are different from the effects of volatility changes around those trends (cycles and extreme events), but the two issues are related. This paper argues that analysis of these developments may benefit from differentiating between trends, cycles, and shorter-term events, including spikes and busts. After expanding on several methodological and data issues related to how these concepts are defined and measured, the paper concludes that although the price shocks of 2008 and 2011 focused the attention of the public and policymakers on price volatility, the decomposition of trends, cycles, and shorter-term volatility also suggests the need to find out whether price variations are responding to cyclical and shorter-term movements, or whether they are the result of a changing trend reflecting adjustments in long-term fundamentals that need to be properly understood. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace148602 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1486022025-11-06T07:22:13Z Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio volatility macroeconomics food security food prices prices In the 1990s, policy debates focused on global price levels and whether they were too low. Two recent food price spikes, in 2008 and 2011, have led to renewed concerns about the impact of high prices and shifted the focus back to food price volatility. The effects of changes in price trends on food production and food consumption (a discussion about price levels) are different from the effects of volatility changes around those trends (cycles and extreme events), but the two issues are related. This paper argues that analysis of these developments may benefit from differentiating between trends, cycles, and shorter-term events, including spikes and busts. After expanding on several methodological and data issues related to how these concepts are defined and measured, the paper concludes that although the price shocks of 2008 and 2011 focused the attention of the public and policymakers on price volatility, the decomposition of trends, cycles, and shorter-term volatility also suggests the need to find out whether price variations are responding to cyclical and shorter-term movements, or whether they are the result of a changing trend reflecting adjustments in long-term fundamentals that need to be properly understood. 2016-01-29 2024-06-21T09:25:11Z 2024-06-21T09:25:11Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148602 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298590 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149774 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149782 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28201-5_2 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio. 2016. Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1505. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148602 |
| spellingShingle | volatility macroeconomics food security food prices prices Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| title | Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| title_full | Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| title_fullStr | Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| title_full_unstemmed | Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| title_short | Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| title_sort | volatile volatility conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility |
| topic | volatility macroeconomics food security food prices prices |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148602 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT diazbonillaeugenio volatilevolatilityconceptualandmeasurementissuesrelatedtopricetrendsandvolatility |