Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand
Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represe...
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148069 |
| _version_ | 1855533363771736064 |
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| author | Gouel, Christophe Guimbard, Houssein |
| author_browse | Gouel, Christophe Guimbard, Houssein |
| author_facet | Gouel, Christophe Guimbard, Houssein |
| author_sort | Gouel, Christophe |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT the statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46 percent, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95 percent increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18 percent increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109 percent and from 20 to 42 percent, respectively. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace148069 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1480692025-11-06T07:03:38Z Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand Gouel, Christophe Guimbard, Houssein income foods economic development demand population nutrition markets food security diet commodity markets prices Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT the statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46 percent, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95 percent increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18 percent increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109 percent and from 20 to 42 percent, respectively. 2017 2024-06-21T09:23:46Z 2024-06-21T09:23:46Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148069 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/147973 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148643 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148617 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Gouel, Christophe and Guimbard, Houssein. 2017. Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1631. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148069 |
| spellingShingle | income foods economic development demand population nutrition markets food security diet commodity markets prices Gouel, Christophe Guimbard, Houssein Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| title | Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| title_full | Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| title_fullStr | Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| title_short | Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| title_sort | nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand |
| topic | income foods economic development demand population nutrition markets food security diet commodity markets prices |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148069 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gouelchristophe nutritiontransitionandthestructureofglobalfooddemand AT guimbardhoussein nutritiontransitionandthestructureofglobalfooddemand |