Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply
The objective of this paper is to explore the evolution of world food demand and supply to 2050, extending a simple econometric model developed by Fukase and Martin (2016). In Fukase and Martin (2016), this model allowed us to assess the prospects for net import demand for food in China. Here, we ex...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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World Bank
2017
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/147508 |
| _version_ | 1855518101817262080 |
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| author | Fukase, Emiko Martin, Will |
| author_browse | Fukase, Emiko Martin, Will |
| author_facet | Fukase, Emiko Martin, Will |
| author_sort | Fukase, Emiko |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The objective of this paper is to explore the evolution of world food demand and supply to 2050, extending a simple econometric model developed by Fukase and Martin (2016). In Fukase and Martin (2016), this model allowed us to assess the prospects for net import demand for food in China. Here, we extend our approach to the global level and focus on the implications of income convergence on long-term food demand and supply. On the demand side, per capita consumption of the aggregate food is modeled as a function of real income only, with a functional form developed to allow for consumption that asymptotically approaches a ceiling level (Rask and Rask 2004, 2011). On the supply side, we specify a production equation as a function of real income and agricultural land endowment per capita. This enables us to estimate a simple relationship between the productivity-driven growth of income per capita, declining per capita availability of agricultural land, and the growth of food output for each country. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace147508 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | World Bank |
| publisherStr | World Bank |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1475082025-04-08T18:27:01Z Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply Fukase, Emiko Martin, Will income income generation economic growth supply balance food supply food security The objective of this paper is to explore the evolution of world food demand and supply to 2050, extending a simple econometric model developed by Fukase and Martin (2016). In Fukase and Martin (2016), this model allowed us to assess the prospects for net import demand for food in China. Here, we extend our approach to the global level and focus on the implications of income convergence on long-term food demand and supply. On the demand side, per capita consumption of the aggregate food is modeled as a function of real income only, with a functional form developed to allow for consumption that asymptotically approaches a ceiling level (Rask and Rask 2004, 2011). On the supply side, we specify a production equation as a function of real income and agricultural land endowment per capita. This enables us to estimate a simple relationship between the productivity-driven growth of income per capita, declining per capita availability of agricultural land, and the growth of food output for each country. 2017 2024-06-21T09:22:58Z 2024-06-21T09:22:58Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/147508 en https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954 World Bank Fukase, Emiko; and Martin, Will. 2017. Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply. Policy Research Working Paper 8257. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/28918 |
| spellingShingle | income income generation economic growth supply balance food supply food security Fukase, Emiko Martin, Will Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply |
| title | Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply |
| title_full | Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply |
| title_fullStr | Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply |
| title_short | Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply |
| title_sort | economic growth convergence and world food demand and supply |
| topic | income income generation economic growth supply balance food supply food security |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/147508 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fukaseemiko economicgrowthconvergenceandworldfooddemandandsupply AT martinwill economicgrowthconvergenceandworldfooddemandandsupply |