Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi
This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present ch...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Association of Agricultural Economists
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146839 |
| _version_ | 1855542850360442880 |
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| author | Komarek, Adam M. Msangi, Siwa |
| author_browse | Komarek, Adam M. Msangi, Siwa |
| author_facet | Komarek, Adam M. Msangi, Siwa |
| author_sort | Komarek, Adam M. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace146839 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | International Association of Agricultural Economists |
| publisherStr | International Association of Agricultural Economists |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1468392024-10-25T08:06:16Z Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi Komarek, Adam M. Msangi, Siwa agricultural production bioeconomic models crop yield population growth crop production population density This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security. 2019-08-26 2024-06-21T09:09:00Z 2024-06-21T09:09:00Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146839 en Open Access International Association of Agricultural Economists Komarek, Adam M.; and Msangi, Siwa. 2019. Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi. Agricultural Economics 50(5): 615-628. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12513 |
| spellingShingle | agricultural production bioeconomic models crop yield population growth crop production population density Komarek, Adam M. Msangi, Siwa Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi |
| title | Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi |
| title_full | Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi |
| title_fullStr | Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi |
| title_short | Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi |
| title_sort | effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in malawi |
| topic | agricultural production bioeconomic models crop yield population growth crop production population density |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146839 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT komarekadamm effectofchangesinpopulationdensityandcropproductivityonfarmhouseholdsinmalawi AT msangisiwa effectofchangesinpopulationdensityandcropproductivityonfarmhouseholdsinmalawi |