Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis
This study demonstrates a method of providing ex-ante estimates of the distributional welfare effects of yield-increasing technology. We apply this approach to estimate the impact of a 10% increase in cassava yields in Nigeria. Using data from the 2012-13 Nigeria General Household Survey, we simulat...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146773 |
| _version_ | 1855521767297122304 |
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| author | Minot, Nicholas Huang, Rachel |
| author_browse | Huang, Rachel Minot, Nicholas |
| author_facet | Minot, Nicholas Huang, Rachel |
| author_sort | Minot, Nicholas |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study demonstrates a method of providing ex-ante estimates of the distributional welfare effects of yield-increasing technology. We apply this approach to estimate the impact of a 10% increase in cassava yields in Nigeria. Using data from the 2012-13 Nigeria General Household Survey, we simulate the effect of the technology on each household in the sample (micro-simulation), taking into account both the yield increase and the resulting price reduction. The results suggest that the higher cassava yield would increase average household income by 0.2 percent, generate aggregate benefits of US$ 219 million per year, and reduce poverty by 0.2 percentage points, lifting 385 thousand people from poverty. Cassava growers who have net sales (11 percent of Nigerian households) would experience a reduction in income and an uptick in poverty due to the lower price. However, net-buying growers (10 percent) and consumers (47 percent) would benefit both in terms of income and poverty reduction. Smaller farms gain since many are net buyers who benefit from the lower price. Larger farms lose because many of them are net sellers who are adversely affected by the lower price. As most of the benefits of technology change are transferred to consumers (including many rural consumers), the cassava consumption patterns are at least as important as grower characteristics in determining the distributional impact of the technology. Applying this approach to all major crops in a country would help policy makers prioritize agricultural research across commodities to increase the poverty-reducing impact. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace146773 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1467732025-11-06T05:52:05Z Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis Minot, Nicholas Huang, Rachel income technological changes ex ante impact assessment policies technology agricultural research income distribution crop yield cassava poverty This study demonstrates a method of providing ex-ante estimates of the distributional welfare effects of yield-increasing technology. We apply this approach to estimate the impact of a 10% increase in cassava yields in Nigeria. Using data from the 2012-13 Nigeria General Household Survey, we simulate the effect of the technology on each household in the sample (micro-simulation), taking into account both the yield increase and the resulting price reduction. The results suggest that the higher cassava yield would increase average household income by 0.2 percent, generate aggregate benefits of US$ 219 million per year, and reduce poverty by 0.2 percentage points, lifting 385 thousand people from poverty. Cassava growers who have net sales (11 percent of Nigerian households) would experience a reduction in income and an uptick in poverty due to the lower price. However, net-buying growers (10 percent) and consumers (47 percent) would benefit both in terms of income and poverty reduction. Smaller farms gain since many are net buyers who benefit from the lower price. Larger farms lose because many of them are net sellers who are adversely affected by the lower price. As most of the benefits of technology change are transferred to consumers (including many rural consumers), the cassava consumption patterns are at least as important as grower characteristics in determining the distributional impact of the technology. Applying this approach to all major crops in a country would help policy makers prioritize agricultural research across commodities to increase the poverty-reducing impact. 2019-12-31 2024-06-21T09:08:41Z 2024-06-21T09:08:41Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146773 en https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12472 https://doi.org/10.2307/1244060 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161967 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Minot, Nicholas; and Huang, Rachel. 2019. Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1901. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146773 |
| spellingShingle | income technological changes ex ante impact assessment policies technology agricultural research income distribution crop yield cassava poverty Minot, Nicholas Huang, Rachel Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis |
| title | Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis |
| title_full | Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis |
| title_fullStr | Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis |
| title_short | Distributional effects of higher cassava yields in Nigeria: An ex ante analysis |
| title_sort | distributional effects of higher cassava yields in nigeria an ex ante analysis |
| topic | income technological changes ex ante impact assessment policies technology agricultural research income distribution crop yield cassava poverty |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146773 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT minotnicholas distributionaleffectsofhighercassavayieldsinnigeriaanexanteanalysis AT huangrachel distributionaleffectsofhighercassavayieldsinnigeriaanexanteanalysis |