Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua
This paper explores the impact of climate change on agriculture in Nicaragua using biophysical models and a bioeconomic model. It also examines differences in projections of key climate models. In Nicaragua’s case, the climate models strongly disagree in the direction of change in precipitation, wit...
| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2019
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146595 |
| _version_ | 1855537770574905344 |
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| author | Rodriguez, Jorge Thomas, Timothy S. Cenacchi, Nicola Rios, Ana R. |
| author_browse | Cenacchi, Nicola Rios, Ana R. Rodriguez, Jorge Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_facet | Rodriguez, Jorge Thomas, Timothy S. Cenacchi, Nicola Rios, Ana R. |
| author_sort | Rodriguez, Jorge |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper explores the impact of climate change on agriculture in Nicaragua using biophysical models and a bioeconomic model. It also examines differences in projections of key climate models. In Nicaragua’s case, the climate models strongly disagree in the direction of change in precipitation, with one model projecting large increases in rainfall and two projecting large decreases. This will keep policy makers from being able to invest in adapting to one type of outcome, though the report still makes recommendations for policies which will help farmers adapt to climate change. Most climate models show that rainfall will decline in the primera season (June–August), which only has a moderate amount of rainfall now. A decline in that season could result in a higher percentage of years with poor yields for maize and other crops. The bioeconomic model used in this report show that averaging across all growing seasons, sugarcane, coffee, maize, sorghum, and beans are expected to suffer negative shocks from climate change. And if the low-rainfall climate model proves to be correct, the losses will be much larger those projected here which rely on the median prediction from the climate models. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace146595 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1465952025-12-08T10:06:44Z Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua Rodriguez, Jorge Thomas, Timothy S. Cenacchi, Nicola Rios, Ana R. models mathematical models agricultural policies sugar cane maize crop yield agriculture climate change adaptation coffee food security poverty crop modelling food insecurity climate change This paper explores the impact of climate change on agriculture in Nicaragua using biophysical models and a bioeconomic model. It also examines differences in projections of key climate models. In Nicaragua’s case, the climate models strongly disagree in the direction of change in precipitation, with one model projecting large increases in rainfall and two projecting large decreases. This will keep policy makers from being able to invest in adapting to one type of outcome, though the report still makes recommendations for policies which will help farmers adapt to climate change. Most climate models show that rainfall will decline in the primera season (June–August), which only has a moderate amount of rainfall now. A decline in that season could result in a higher percentage of years with poor yields for maize and other crops. The bioeconomic model used in this report show that averaging across all growing seasons, sugarcane, coffee, maize, sorghum, and beans are expected to suffer negative shocks from climate change. And if the low-rainfall climate model proves to be correct, the losses will be much larger those projected here which rely on the median prediction from the climate models. 2019-04-19 2024-06-21T09:07:41Z 2024-06-21T09:07:41Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146595 en https://cgspace.cgiar.org/items/ae072d18-eb29-421f-abd1-cc279f240d03 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146591 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133209 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133211 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133215 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133213 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Rodriguez, Jorge; Thomas, Timothy S.; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Rios, Ana R. 2019. Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1829. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133214. |
| spellingShingle | models mathematical models agricultural policies sugar cane maize crop yield agriculture climate change adaptation coffee food security poverty crop modelling food insecurity climate change Rodriguez, Jorge Thomas, Timothy S. Cenacchi, Nicola Rios, Ana R. Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua |
| title | Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua |
| title_full | Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua |
| title_fullStr | Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua |
| title_short | Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Nicaragua |
| title_sort | climate change agriculture and adaptation options for nicaragua |
| topic | models mathematical models agricultural policies sugar cane maize crop yield agriculture climate change adaptation coffee food security poverty crop modelling food insecurity climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146595 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rodriguezjorge climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsfornicaragua AT thomastimothys climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsfornicaragua AT cenacchinicola climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsfornicaragua AT riosanar climatechangeagricultureandadaptationoptionsfornicaragua |