Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia
We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of E...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2019
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146588 |
| _version_ | 1855518594193948672 |
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| author | Thomas, Timothy S. Dorosh, Paul A. Robertson, Richard D. |
| author_browse | Dorosh, Paul A. Robertson, Richard D. Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_facet | Thomas, Timothy S. Dorosh, Paul A. Robertson, Richard D. |
| author_sort | Thomas, Timothy S. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace146588 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1465882025-12-08T10:06:44Z Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia Thomas, Timothy S. Dorosh, Paul A. Robertson, Richard D. sorghum mathematical models maize yields wheat climate change We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past. 2019-02-15 2024-06-21T09:07:39Z 2024-06-21T09:07:39Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146588 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ethiopian Development Research Institute Thomas, Timothy S.; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2019. Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia. ESSP Working Paper 130. Washington, DC and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146588 |
| spellingShingle | sorghum mathematical models maize yields wheat climate change Thomas, Timothy S. Dorosh, Paul A. Robertson, Richard D. Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia |
| title | Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia |
| title_full | Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia |
| title_short | Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on crop yields in ethiopia |
| topic | sorghum mathematical models maize yields wheat climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146588 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thomastimothys climatechangeimpactsoncropyieldsinethiopia AT doroshpaula climatechangeimpactsoncropyieldsinethiopia AT robertsonrichardd climatechangeimpactsoncropyieldsinethiopia |