Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allo...

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Autores principales: Arndt, Channing, Chinowsky, Paul, Fant, Charles, Paltsev, Sergey, Schlosser, Adam, Strzepek, Kenneth M., Tarp, Finn, Thurlow, James
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Springer 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146584
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author Arndt, Channing
Chinowsky, Paul
Fant, Charles
Paltsev, Sergey
Schlosser, Adam
Strzepek, Kenneth M.
Tarp, Finn
Thurlow, James
author_browse Arndt, Channing
Chinowsky, Paul
Fant, Charles
Paltsev, Sergey
Schlosser, Adam
Strzepek, Kenneth M.
Tarp, Finn
Thurlow, James
author_facet Arndt, Channing
Chinowsky, Paul
Fant, Charles
Paltsev, Sergey
Schlosser, Adam
Strzepek, Kenneth M.
Tarp, Finn
Thurlow, James
author_sort Arndt, Channing
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.
format Journal Article
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spelling CGSpace1465842025-02-24T06:46:50Z Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia Arndt, Channing Chinowsky, Paul Fant, Charles Paltsev, Sergey Schlosser, Adam Strzepek, Kenneth M. Tarp, Finn Thurlow, James economic growth economic impact fuels fossil fuels emission developing countries climate change mitigation food security climate change We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050. 2019-05-06 2024-06-21T09:07:38Z 2024-06-21T09:07:38Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146584 en https://www.ft.com/content/72e1092b-1611-3413-8c19-56a43f0661ae Open Access Springer Arndt, Channing; Chinowsky, Paul; Fant, Charles; Paltsev, Sergey; Schlosser, Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn; and Thurlow, James. Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. Climatic Change 154(3-4): 335–349. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02428-3
spellingShingle economic growth
economic impact
fuels
fossil fuels
emission
developing countries
climate change mitigation
food security
climate change
Arndt, Channing
Chinowsky, Paul
Fant, Charles
Paltsev, Sergey
Schlosser, Adam
Strzepek, Kenneth M.
Tarp, Finn
Thurlow, James
Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia
title Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia
title_full Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia
title_fullStr Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia
title_full_unstemmed Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia
title_short Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia
title_sort climate change and developing country growth the cases of malawi mozambique and zambia
topic economic growth
economic impact
fuels
fossil fuels
emission
developing countries
climate change mitigation
food security
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146584
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