Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results

This paper presents a supply-and-demand model for the fisheries sector developed to assess the effect of climate change and related adaptation strategies in four Pacific coral triangle (CT) countries—Fiji, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. The modeling approach used in this paper represents...

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Autores principales: Dey, Madan M., Rosegrant, Mark W., Gosh, Kamal, Chen, Oai Li, Valmonte-Santos, Rowena
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Elsevier 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146338
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author Dey, Madan M.
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Gosh, Kamal
Chen, Oai Li
Valmonte-Santos, Rowena
author_browse Chen, Oai Li
Dey, Madan M.
Gosh, Kamal
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Valmonte-Santos, Rowena
author_facet Dey, Madan M.
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Gosh, Kamal
Chen, Oai Li
Valmonte-Santos, Rowena
author_sort Dey, Madan M.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This paper presents a supply-and-demand model for the fisheries sector developed to assess the effect of climate change and related adaptation strategies in four Pacific coral triangle (CT) countries—Fiji, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. The modeling approach used in this paper represents climate change in terms of supply shocks, and works out its economic consequences using the microeconomic tools of supply and demand. The analysis has considered three time periods: current (represented by the average data of the three most recent available years 2006–2009), medium term (2035), and long term (2050). The study covers all fisheries and aquaculture species, grouped into six key subsectors: tuna, other oceanic finfish, coastal finfish, coastal invertebrates, freshwater finfish, and freshwater invertebrates. Results of the baseline model indicate that with rising per capita income and population, fish demand is expected to increase substantially up to 2050. In contrast to significant growth in fish demand, growth in domestic fish production is projected to be slow due to climate change and other constraints. There is a strong likelihood that many Pacific countries will become large net importers of fish under the baseline scenario (i.e., without implementing climate change adaptation strategies). Likewise, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish is projected to decline under the baseline scenario.
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spelling CGSpace1463382025-02-19T14:08:14Z Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results Dey, Madan M. Rosegrant, Mark W. Gosh, Kamal Chen, Oai Li Valmonte-Santos, Rowena supply balance fisheries climate change This paper presents a supply-and-demand model for the fisheries sector developed to assess the effect of climate change and related adaptation strategies in four Pacific coral triangle (CT) countries—Fiji, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. The modeling approach used in this paper represents climate change in terms of supply shocks, and works out its economic consequences using the microeconomic tools of supply and demand. The analysis has considered three time periods: current (represented by the average data of the three most recent available years 2006–2009), medium term (2035), and long term (2050). The study covers all fisheries and aquaculture species, grouped into six key subsectors: tuna, other oceanic finfish, coastal finfish, coastal invertebrates, freshwater finfish, and freshwater invertebrates. Results of the baseline model indicate that with rising per capita income and population, fish demand is expected to increase substantially up to 2050. In contrast to significant growth in fish demand, growth in domestic fish production is projected to be slow due to climate change and other constraints. There is a strong likelihood that many Pacific countries will become large net importers of fish under the baseline scenario (i.e., without implementing climate change adaptation strategies). Likewise, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish is projected to decline under the baseline scenario. 2016-01-29 2024-06-21T09:06:41Z 2024-06-21T09:06:41Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146338 en Open Access Elsevier Dey, Madan M.; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Gosh, Kamal; Chen, Oai Li; and Valmonte-Santos, Rowena. 2016. Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results. Marine Policy 67(2016): 156 - 163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.011
spellingShingle supply balance
fisheries
climate change
Dey, Madan M.
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Gosh, Kamal
Chen, Oai Li
Valmonte-Santos, Rowena
Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
title Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
title_full Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
title_fullStr Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
title_short Analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Pacific coral triangle countries: Model, estimation strategy, and baseline results
title_sort analysis of the economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in pacific coral triangle countries model estimation strategy and baseline results
topic supply balance
fisheries
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146338
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