An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia

We analyze the evolution of crop and livestock producer prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the effect of El Niño triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidenc...

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Autores principales: Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane, Yimer, Feiruz, Minten, Bart
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146337
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author Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
Yimer, Feiruz
Minten, Bart
author_browse Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
Minten, Bart
Yimer, Feiruz
author_facet Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
Yimer, Feiruz
Minten, Bart
author_sort Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description We analyze the evolution of crop and livestock producer prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the effect of El Niño triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in cereal and labor markets. Real prices of major cereals were lower in January 2017 compared to three years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat – the crops that are the major source of calories in areas that were most hit by drought. The decline in the cost of cereals in the food basket in January 2017 compared to three years earlier was estimated at 13.3 percent at the national level. Moreover, this decline in cereal costs was highest in areas most affected by the drought, possibly indicating the effect of major cereal imports and food aid directed to these areas. Considering crop and livestock prices jointly, the analysis reveals that livestock-cereal terms of trade improved. This is mainly due to the fact that although livestock prices declined during this period, as is usually seen in droughts, this decline was less than the decline in prices of cereals in such areas. The fluctuating behavior of cereal prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the El Niño triggered major drought during 1997/98 in Ethiopia. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant increases in the real price of cereals, ranging between 15 and 45 percent. In contrast, in 2016 real cereal prices declined, which appears consistent with the relatively larger cereal imports and lower impacts of the drought on national cereal production in 2015/16.
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spelling CGSpace1463372025-11-06T07:01:07Z An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane Yimer, Feiruz Minten, Bart remuneration drought prices cereals maize sorghum wheat livestock resilience el niño We analyze the evolution of crop and livestock producer prices and wages of unskilled laborers in Ethiopia between January 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the effect of El Niño triggered droughts – which started in 2015 – that massively impacted parts of the country. The analyses reveal no evidence of widespread adverse price effects of the drought in cereal and labor markets. Real prices of major cereals were lower in January 2017 compared to three years earlier, especially for maize, sorghum, and wheat – the crops that are the major source of calories in areas that were most hit by drought. The decline in the cost of cereals in the food basket in January 2017 compared to three years earlier was estimated at 13.3 percent at the national level. Moreover, this decline in cereal costs was highest in areas most affected by the drought, possibly indicating the effect of major cereal imports and food aid directed to these areas. Considering crop and livestock prices jointly, the analysis reveals that livestock-cereal terms of trade improved. This is mainly due to the fact that although livestock prices declined during this period, as is usually seen in droughts, this decline was less than the decline in prices of cereals in such areas. The fluctuating behavior of cereal prices since January 2015 strikingly contrasts with the El Niño triggered major drought during 1997/98 in Ethiopia. During that period, cereal production declined by 25 percent compared to the year before, with significant increases in the real price of cereals, ranging between 15 and 45 percent. In contrast, in 2016 real cereal prices declined, which appears consistent with the relatively larger cereal imports and lower impacts of the drought on national cereal production in 2015/16. 2017 2024-06-21T09:06:41Z 2024-06-21T09:06:41Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146337 en application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ethiopian Development Research Institute Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Yimer, Feiruz; and Minten, Bart. 2017. Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia: An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017). ESSP Working Paper 106. Washington, DC and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146337
spellingShingle remuneration
drought
prices
cereals
maize
sorghum
wheat
livestock
resilience
el niño
Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane
Yimer, Feiruz
Minten, Bart
An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia
title An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia
title_full An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia
title_fullStr An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia
title_short An updated assessment using national producer data (January 2014 to January 2017): Agricultural price evolution in drought versus non-drought affected areas in Ethiopia
title_sort updated assessment using national producer data january 2014 to january 2017 agricultural price evolution in drought versus non drought affected areas in ethiopia
topic remuneration
drought
prices
cereals
maize
sorghum
wheat
livestock
resilience
el niño
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146337
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