Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers

This study’s objective is to examine the factors that have driven structural transformation (ST) in the Southeast Asian (SEA) economies and the policies supporting the process. It sets the stage by evaluating the ST in each country, quantifying the contribution of “within sector” and “structural cha...

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Autores principales: Bathla, Seema, D'Souza, Alwin, Joshi, Pramod Kumar
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145802
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author Bathla, Seema
D'Souza, Alwin
Joshi, Pramod Kumar
author_browse Bathla, Seema
D'Souza, Alwin
Joshi, Pramod Kumar
author_facet Bathla, Seema
D'Souza, Alwin
Joshi, Pramod Kumar
author_sort Bathla, Seema
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This study’s objective is to examine the factors that have driven structural transformation (ST) in the Southeast Asian (SEA) economies and the policies supporting the process. It sets the stage by evaluating the ST in each country, quantifying the contribution of “within sector” and “structural change” to overall productivity growth and estimating the turning points (TPs) to gauge the prospects of income convergence. Eight SEA countries, undergoing a steady rate of economic growth —Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Viet Nam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand (CLMVPMIT) are chosen for analysis. We find their progress on ST to be consistent with the theory and historical patterns experienced in several developed and developing countries. However, progress is diverse across these countries and lags behind developed countries, indicating that labor is not exiting agriculture as fast as agriculture’s share of value added has been declining. The ST has decreased from 49 percent in Thailand to almost 3 percent each in Cambodia and Malaysia during 1991 to 2016. Further, the contribution of within change to productivity, which was pivotal during the 1990s in each country is rather subdued during the 2000s, thereby giving comparative primacy to structural change. A relatively higher—57 to 80 percent—contribution of structural change in Cambodia and Lao PDR, together with productivity growth, may be explained by increasing migration and trade in nonagriculture products. We also find that while Lao PDR, Thailand, and Indonesia have reached their TPs, other nations, especially the poorer ones such as Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Philippines are predicted to take at least a decade towards this goal. Empirical analysis suggests ST in CLMVPMIT is positively driven by agricultural productivity, terms of trade, and public investments in infrastructure, with little role for rural to urban migration and market integration. Large inter-sectoral productivity differentials across SEA countries, other than in Cambodia and Malaysia, necessitates to accelerate agricultural disproportionate share of the labor force in agriculture through higher productivity.
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spelling CGSpace1458022025-11-06T05:23:01Z Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers Bathla, Seema D'Souza, Alwin Joshi, Pramod Kumar land productivity policies agricultural transformation labour productivity infrastructure public policies agricultural productivity diversification This study’s objective is to examine the factors that have driven structural transformation (ST) in the Southeast Asian (SEA) economies and the policies supporting the process. It sets the stage by evaluating the ST in each country, quantifying the contribution of “within sector” and “structural change” to overall productivity growth and estimating the turning points (TPs) to gauge the prospects of income convergence. Eight SEA countries, undergoing a steady rate of economic growth —Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Viet Nam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand (CLMVPMIT) are chosen for analysis. We find their progress on ST to be consistent with the theory and historical patterns experienced in several developed and developing countries. However, progress is diverse across these countries and lags behind developed countries, indicating that labor is not exiting agriculture as fast as agriculture’s share of value added has been declining. The ST has decreased from 49 percent in Thailand to almost 3 percent each in Cambodia and Malaysia during 1991 to 2016. Further, the contribution of within change to productivity, which was pivotal during the 1990s in each country is rather subdued during the 2000s, thereby giving comparative primacy to structural change. A relatively higher—57 to 80 percent—contribution of structural change in Cambodia and Lao PDR, together with productivity growth, may be explained by increasing migration and trade in nonagriculture products. We also find that while Lao PDR, Thailand, and Indonesia have reached their TPs, other nations, especially the poorer ones such as Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Philippines are predicted to take at least a decade towards this goal. Empirical analysis suggests ST in CLMVPMIT is positively driven by agricultural productivity, terms of trade, and public investments in infrastructure, with little role for rural to urban migration and market integration. Large inter-sectoral productivity differentials across SEA countries, other than in Cambodia and Malaysia, necessitates to accelerate agricultural disproportionate share of the labor force in agriculture through higher productivity. 2019-08-03 2024-06-21T09:05:04Z 2024-06-21T09:05:04Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145802 en https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133252 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133195 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/147391 https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/how-did-sanctions-impact-myanmar/ https://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/2018/05/22/from-look-east-act-east-india-must-think-big-and-act-big.html Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Bathla, Seema; D'Souza, Alwin; and Joshi, Pramod Kumar. 2019. Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1856. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145802
spellingShingle land productivity
policies
agricultural transformation
labour productivity
infrastructure
public policies
agricultural productivity
diversification
Bathla, Seema
D'Souza, Alwin
Joshi, Pramod Kumar
Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers
title Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers
title_full Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers
title_fullStr Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers
title_full_unstemmed Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers
title_short Structural transformation in Southeast Asian countries and key drivers
title_sort structural transformation in southeast asian countries and key drivers
topic land productivity
policies
agricultural transformation
labour productivity
infrastructure
public policies
agricultural productivity
diversification
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145802
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AT joshipramodkumar structuraltransformationinsoutheastasiancountriesandkeydrivers