Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices
In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided des...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Annual Reviews
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145727 |
| _version_ | 1855536888008409088 |
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| author | Wiebe, Keith D. Zurek, Monika Lord, Steven Brzezina, Natalia Gabrielyan, Gnel Libertini, Jessica Loch, Adam Thapa-Parajuli, Resham Vervoort, Joost Westhoek, Henk |
| author_browse | Brzezina, Natalia Gabrielyan, Gnel Libertini, Jessica Loch, Adam Lord, Steven Thapa-Parajuli, Resham Vervoort, Joost Westhoek, Henk Wiebe, Keith D. Zurek, Monika |
| author_facet | Wiebe, Keith D. Zurek, Monika Lord, Steven Brzezina, Natalia Gabrielyan, Gnel Libertini, Jessica Loch, Adam Thapa-Parajuli, Resham Vervoort, Joost Westhoek, Henk |
| author_sort | Wiebe, Keith D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace145727 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateRange | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | Annual Reviews |
| publisherStr | Annual Reviews |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1457272025-02-19T12:58:58Z Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices Wiebe, Keith D. Zurek, Monika Lord, Steven Brzezina, Natalia Gabrielyan, Gnel Libertini, Jessica Loch, Adam Thapa-Parajuli, Resham Vervoort, Joost Westhoek, Henk models forecasting climate agriculture environment decision making climate change In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow. 2018-12-12 2024-06-21T09:04:57Z 2024-06-21T09:04:57Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145727 en Open Access Annual Reviews Wiebe, Keith D.; Zurek, Monika; Lord, Steven; Brzezina, Natalia; Gabrielyan, Gnel; Libertini, Jessica; Loch, Adam; Thapa-Parajuli, Resham; Vervoort, Joost; Westhoek, Henk. 2018. Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 43(2018): 545-570. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030109 |
| spellingShingle | models forecasting climate agriculture environment decision making climate change Wiebe, Keith D. Zurek, Monika Lord, Steven Brzezina, Natalia Gabrielyan, Gnel Libertini, Jessica Loch, Adam Thapa-Parajuli, Resham Vervoort, Joost Westhoek, Henk Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices |
| title | Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices |
| title_full | Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices |
| title_fullStr | Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices |
| title_short | Scenario development and foresight analysis: Exploring options to inform choices |
| title_sort | scenario development and foresight analysis exploring options to inform choices |
| topic | models forecasting climate agriculture environment decision making climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145727 |
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