Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down

The first decade of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) post-conflict reconstruction period (2004-2013) was marked by an unprecedented economic growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of 3-4% per year, but was this ‘peace dividend’ translated into widespread poverty reduction with...

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Autores principales: Marivoet, Wim, De Herdt, Tom, Ulimwengu, John M.
Formato: Informe técnico
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145694
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author Marivoet, Wim
De Herdt, Tom
Ulimwengu, John M.
author_browse De Herdt, Tom
Marivoet, Wim
Ulimwengu, John M.
author_facet Marivoet, Wim
De Herdt, Tom
Ulimwengu, John M.
author_sort Marivoet, Wim
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The first decade of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) post-conflict reconstruction period (2004-2013) was marked by an unprecedented economic growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of 3-4% per year, but was this ‘peace dividend’ translated into widespread poverty reduction within the Congolese population? This working paper answers this question by focusing on the percentage of people in poverty (or poverty headcounts) using micro-level data. The paper uses two national household surveys: the first was conducted in 2004-2005, right before the 2006 elections that inaugurated the first post-conflict government; and the second was carried out in 2012-2013, about seven years after the first round. Both the Institut National de la Statistique (INS) (RDC, 2014) and the World Bank (2016) estimate very high poverty rates; and both point to a significant decrease in poverty between the two survey periods. Using the same datasets, both institutions find that the poverty headcount decreased by five to eight percentage points. The problem with both estimates, however, is that they cannot be replicated. The World Bank reports its poverty estimates without elaborating on the methodology, nor explaining why they differ from the INS results. Although INS provides more detail on the methodology they followed, this information only enabled the authors to replicate its 2005 poverty estimates (RDC, 2006), not its 2012 estimates. When applying the INS’s methodology from 2005 to the 2012 survey, the authors found that the percentage of people in poverty substantially increased from 72% to 81% – in sharp contrast to the INS’s own reported results, and also runs counter to current understandings on the evolution of the DRC’s economy. To produce more accurate poverty estimates and trends, the authors made a number of modifications to the INS methodology.
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spelling CGSpace1456942025-02-19T19:25:02Z Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down Marivoet, Wim De Herdt, Tom Ulimwengu, John M. economic growth household surveys capacity development gross national product poverty statistical methods methodology statistics The first decade of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) post-conflict reconstruction period (2004-2013) was marked by an unprecedented economic growth in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of 3-4% per year, but was this ‘peace dividend’ translated into widespread poverty reduction within the Congolese population? This working paper answers this question by focusing on the percentage of people in poverty (or poverty headcounts) using micro-level data. The paper uses two national household surveys: the first was conducted in 2004-2005, right before the 2006 elections that inaugurated the first post-conflict government; and the second was carried out in 2012-2013, about seven years after the first round. Both the Institut National de la Statistique (INS) (RDC, 2014) and the World Bank (2016) estimate very high poverty rates; and both point to a significant decrease in poverty between the two survey periods. Using the same datasets, both institutions find that the poverty headcount decreased by five to eight percentage points. The problem with both estimates, however, is that they cannot be replicated. The World Bank reports its poverty estimates without elaborating on the methodology, nor explaining why they differ from the INS results. Although INS provides more detail on the methodology they followed, this information only enabled the authors to replicate its 2005 poverty estimates (RDC, 2006), not its 2012 estimates. When applying the INS’s methodology from 2005 to the 2012 survey, the authors found that the percentage of people in poverty substantially increased from 72% to 81% – in sharp contrast to the INS’s own reported results, and also runs counter to current understandings on the evolution of the DRC’s economy. To produce more accurate poverty estimates and trends, the authors made a number of modifications to the INS methodology. 2019-03-14 2024-06-21T09:04:53Z 2024-06-21T09:04:53Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145694 en https://securelivelihoods.org/wp-content/uploads/Poverty-estimates-summary-English-online.pdf https://securelivelihoods.org/wp-content/uploads/Poverty-estimates-summary-French-online.pdf Open Access Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium Marivoet, Wim; De Herdt, Tom; and Ulimwengu, John M. 2019. Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down. London: Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium. https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/reviewing-drc-s-poverty-estimates-2005-2012-unprecedented-gdp
spellingShingle economic growth
household surveys
capacity development
gross national product
poverty
statistical methods
methodology
statistics
Marivoet, Wim
De Herdt, Tom
Ulimwengu, John M.
Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down
title Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down
title_full Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down
title_fullStr Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down
title_full_unstemmed Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down
title_short Reviewing DRC’s poverty estimates, 2005-2012: Unprecedented GDP growth without trickle down
title_sort reviewing drc s poverty estimates 2005 2012 unprecedented gdp growth without trickle down
topic economic growth
household surveys
capacity development
gross national product
poverty
statistical methods
methodology
statistics
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145694
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