Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh
In the context of the massive influx of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals to Bangladesh, this paper aims to evaluate the potential consequences on the Southern Bangladesh economy. It adopts an economywide perspective to study the impacts of increased labor supply and increased consumer demand in...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2019
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145441 |
| _version_ | 1855528161749499904 |
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| author | Filipski, Mateusz J. Tiburcio, Ernesto Dorosh, Paul A. Hoddinott, John F. Rosenbach, Gracie |
| author_browse | Dorosh, Paul A. Filipski, Mateusz J. Hoddinott, John F. Rosenbach, Gracie Tiburcio, Ernesto |
| author_facet | Filipski, Mateusz J. Tiburcio, Ernesto Dorosh, Paul A. Hoddinott, John F. Rosenbach, Gracie |
| author_sort | Filipski, Mateusz J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In the context of the massive influx of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals to Bangladesh, this paper aims to evaluate the potential consequences on the Southern Bangladesh economy. It adopts an economywide perspective to study the impacts of increased labor supply and increased consumer demand in a general equilibrium framework, using a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model. The model is used to illustrate the potential effect of a large arrival of displaced populations on wages, the supply and demand of goods, and incomes of migrant and host populations. Simulations enable comparisons between possible scenarios, including two options for the size of the market being impacted (either the smaller Cox’s Bazar District, or the larger Chittagong Division) and several options for aid provisions from international actors. The databases used are the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) and Host Community Household Survey carried out by IFPRI, BIDS, WFP and ACF in late 2018 and the official Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016. We find that if the migrants enter the Cox Bazar labor markets only, their large number could potentially lead to a large drop in wage levels of around 30%. However, under similar conditions their impact in the much larger Chittagong Division would be limited to a drop of less than 4%. Cash transfers to migrants could mitigate the wage effects by stimulating local demand, but this effect is limited. Some local households may be hurt due to lower wages and higher prices. Matched transfers to local populations and investments in local industry could potentially offset some of these negative impacts. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace145441 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1454412025-11-06T06:31:18Z Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh Filipski, Mateusz J. Tiburcio, Ernesto Dorosh, Paul A. Hoddinott, John F. Rosenbach, Gracie refugees economic analysis labour market economic development migration In the context of the massive influx of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals to Bangladesh, this paper aims to evaluate the potential consequences on the Southern Bangladesh economy. It adopts an economywide perspective to study the impacts of increased labor supply and increased consumer demand in a general equilibrium framework, using a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model. The model is used to illustrate the potential effect of a large arrival of displaced populations on wages, the supply and demand of goods, and incomes of migrant and host populations. Simulations enable comparisons between possible scenarios, including two options for the size of the market being impacted (either the smaller Cox’s Bazar District, or the larger Chittagong Division) and several options for aid provisions from international actors. The databases used are the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) and Host Community Household Survey carried out by IFPRI, BIDS, WFP and ACF in late 2018 and the official Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016. We find that if the migrants enter the Cox Bazar labor markets only, their large number could potentially lead to a large drop in wage levels of around 30%. However, under similar conditions their impact in the much larger Chittagong Division would be limited to a drop of less than 4%. Cash transfers to migrants could mitigate the wage effects by stimulating local demand, but this effect is limited. Some local households may be hurt due to lower wages and higher prices. Matched transfers to local populations and investments in local industry could potentially offset some of these negative impacts. 2019-09-04 2024-06-21T09:04:30Z 2024-06-21T09:04:30Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145441 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296893 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146826 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Filipski, Mateusz J.; Tiburcio, Ernesto; Dorosh, Paul A.; Hoddinott, John F.; and Rosenbach, Gracie. 2019. Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya Influx in Southern Bangladesh. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1819. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145441 |
| spellingShingle | refugees economic analysis labour market economic development migration Filipski, Mateusz J. Tiburcio, Ernesto Dorosh, Paul A. Hoddinott, John F. Rosenbach, Gracie Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh |
| title | Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh |
| title_full | Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh |
| title_short | Modelling the economic impact of the Rohingya influx in Southern Bangladesh |
| title_sort | modelling the economic impact of the rohingya influx in southern bangladesh |
| topic | refugees economic analysis labour market economic development migration |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145441 |
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