Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) business as usual projections of agricultural supply and demand anticipate a rise in food prices of most cereals and meats, reversing long-established downward trends. Between 2005 and 2050, food prices for maize, rice, and wheat are projected...

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Autores principales: Rosegrant, Mark W., Koo, Jawoo, Cenacchi, Nicola, Ringler, Claudia, Robertson, Richard D., Fisher, Myles, Cox, Cindy M., Garrett, Karen, Perez, Nicostrato D., Sabbagh, Pascale
Formato: Libro
Lenguaje:Inglés
chino
Francés
Español
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144974
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author Rosegrant, Mark W.
Koo, Jawoo
Cenacchi, Nicola
Ringler, Claudia
Robertson, Richard D.
Fisher, Myles
Cox, Cindy M.
Garrett, Karen
Perez, Nicostrato D.
Sabbagh, Pascale
author_browse Cenacchi, Nicola
Cox, Cindy M.
Fisher, Myles
Garrett, Karen
Koo, Jawoo
Perez, Nicostrato D.
Ringler, Claudia
Robertson, Richard D.
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Sabbagh, Pascale
author_facet Rosegrant, Mark W.
Koo, Jawoo
Cenacchi, Nicola
Ringler, Claudia
Robertson, Richard D.
Fisher, Myles
Cox, Cindy M.
Garrett, Karen
Perez, Nicostrato D.
Sabbagh, Pascale
author_sort Rosegrant, Mark W.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) business as usual projections of agricultural supply and demand anticipate a rise in food prices of most cereals and meats, reversing long-established downward trends. Between 2005 and 2050, food prices for maize, rice, and wheat are projected to increase by 104, 79, and 88 percent, respectively, while those for beef, pork, and poultry will rise by 32, 70, and 77 percent, respectively. Moreover, the number of people at risk of hunger in the developing world will grow from 881 million in 2005 to more than a billion people by 2050 (IFPRI International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade [IMPACT] baseline, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate [MIROC] A1B scenario1 used in this book). More recent modeling efforts that use nine agricultural models, including both general equilibrium and partial equilibrium models, project that food price increases out to 2050 will be more moderate under climate change, with the IMPACT results in the medium range of price increases. Our results indicate increases in the real price of maize of 40–45 percent in 2050 and in the price of wheat and rice of 20–25 percent under climate change relative to a no–climate change scenario, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2 scenario2 (Nelson et al. 2013). This book includes the following synopsis: Rosegrant, Mark W.; Koo, Jawoo; Cenacchi, Nicola; Ringler, Claudia; Robertson, Richard D.; Fisher, Myles; Cox, Cindy M.; Garrett, Karen; Perez, Nicostrato D.; and Sabbagh, Pascale. 2014. Synopsis of Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/128023 Feeding the world in the decades leading up to 2050—decades that will see an increase in food demand spurred by population and income growth and stronger impacts of climate change on agriculture—will require increased and more sustainable agricultural production. To determine how to achieve such production, the authors of the study Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity used a groundbreaking modeling approach to assess the yield and food security impacts of a broad range of agricultural technologies under varying assumptions regarding climate change and technology adoption. Their approach combines process-based crop modeling of agricultural technologies with sophisticated global food demand, supply, and trade modeling. The authors’ focus was on the world’s three key staple crops: maize, rice, and wheat.
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spelling CGSpace1449742025-11-06T04:18:21Z Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies Rosegrant, Mark W. Koo, Jawoo Cenacchi, Nicola Ringler, Claudia Robertson, Richard D. Fisher, Myles Cox, Cindy M. Garrett, Karen Perez, Nicostrato D. Sabbagh, Pascale agricultural policies agricultural technology crop yield mathematical models zero tillage soil fertility precision agriculture organic agriculture nitrogen water harvesting trickle irrigation water management crop improvement drought tolerance heat tolerance plant protection alternative agriculture commodities trade food supply food security climate change technological changes commodity markets resource management economic development nutrition malnutrition The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) business as usual projections of agricultural supply and demand anticipate a rise in food prices of most cereals and meats, reversing long-established downward trends. Between 2005 and 2050, food prices for maize, rice, and wheat are projected to increase by 104, 79, and 88 percent, respectively, while those for beef, pork, and poultry will rise by 32, 70, and 77 percent, respectively. Moreover, the number of people at risk of hunger in the developing world will grow from 881 million in 2005 to more than a billion people by 2050 (IFPRI International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade [IMPACT] baseline, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate [MIROC] A1B scenario1 used in this book). More recent modeling efforts that use nine agricultural models, including both general equilibrium and partial equilibrium models, project that food price increases out to 2050 will be more moderate under climate change, with the IMPACT results in the medium range of price increases. Our results indicate increases in the real price of maize of 40–45 percent in 2050 and in the price of wheat and rice of 20–25 percent under climate change relative to a no–climate change scenario, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2 scenario2 (Nelson et al. 2013). This book includes the following synopsis: Rosegrant, Mark W.; Koo, Jawoo; Cenacchi, Nicola; Ringler, Claudia; Robertson, Richard D.; Fisher, Myles; Cox, Cindy M.; Garrett, Karen; Perez, Nicostrato D.; and Sabbagh, Pascale. 2014. Synopsis of Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/128023 Feeding the world in the decades leading up to 2050—decades that will see an increase in food demand spurred by population and income growth and stronger impacts of climate change on agriculture—will require increased and more sustainable agricultural production. To determine how to achieve such production, the authors of the study Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity used a groundbreaking modeling approach to assess the yield and food security impacts of a broad range of agricultural technologies under varying assumptions regarding climate change and technology adoption. Their approach combines process-based crop modeling of agricultural technologies with sophisticated global food demand, supply, and trade modeling. The authors’ focus was on the world’s three key staple crops: maize, rice, and wheat. 2014-02-02 2024-06-04T17:31:16Z 2024-06-04T17:31:16Z Book https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144974 en zh fr es https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0359-z https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v6n9p232 Open Access application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Rosegrant, Mark W.; Koo, Jawoo; Cenacchi, Nicola; Ringler, Claudia; Robertson, Richard D.; Fisher, Myles; Cox, Cindy M.; Garrett, Karen; Perez, Nicostrato D.; and Sabbagh, Pascale. 2014. Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298477.
spellingShingle agricultural policies
agricultural technology
crop yield
mathematical models
zero tillage
soil fertility
precision agriculture
organic agriculture
nitrogen
water harvesting
trickle irrigation
water management
crop improvement
drought tolerance
heat tolerance
plant protection
alternative agriculture
commodities
trade
food supply
food security
climate change
technological changes
commodity markets
resource management
economic development
nutrition
malnutrition
Rosegrant, Mark W.
Koo, Jawoo
Cenacchi, Nicola
Ringler, Claudia
Robertson, Richard D.
Fisher, Myles
Cox, Cindy M.
Garrett, Karen
Perez, Nicostrato D.
Sabbagh, Pascale
Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies
title Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies
title_full Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies
title_fullStr Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies
title_full_unstemmed Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies
title_short Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies
title_sort food security in a world of natural resource scarcity the role of agricultural technologies
topic agricultural policies
agricultural technology
crop yield
mathematical models
zero tillage
soil fertility
precision agriculture
organic agriculture
nitrogen
water harvesting
trickle irrigation
water management
crop improvement
drought tolerance
heat tolerance
plant protection
alternative agriculture
commodities
trade
food supply
food security
climate change
technological changes
commodity markets
resource management
economic development
nutrition
malnutrition
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144974
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