Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compa...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Springer
2024
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144244 |
| _version_ | 1855540305478025216 |
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| author | Mukashov, Askar Thomas, Timothy S. Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Mukashov, Askar Thomas, Timothy S. Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Mukashov, Askar Thomas, Timothy S. Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Mukashov, Askar |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace144244 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1442442025-10-26T12:50:34Z Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi Mukashov, Askar Thomas, Timothy S. Thurlow, James agriculture development climate change stochastic models poverty undernutrition This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking. 2024-06 2024-06-03T21:00:45Z 2024-06-03T21:00:45Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144244 en https://www.ifpri.org/blog/revisiting-development-strategies-under-climate-uncertainty-insights-from-malawi/ Open Access Springer Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177: 91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture development climate change stochastic models poverty undernutrition Mukashov, Askar Thomas, Timothy S. Thurlow, James Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi |
| title | Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi |
| title_full | Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi |
| title_fullStr | Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi |
| title_full_unstemmed | Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi |
| title_short | Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi |
| title_sort | revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty case study of malawi |
| topic | agriculture development climate change stochastic models poverty undernutrition |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144244 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mukashovaskar revisitingdevelopmentstrategyunderclimateuncertaintycasestudyofmalawi AT thomastimothys revisitingdevelopmentstrategyunderclimateuncertaintycasestudyofmalawi AT thurlowjames revisitingdevelopmentstrategyunderclimateuncertaintycasestudyofmalawi |