Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as pa...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144028 |
| _version_ | 1855523429110775808 |
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| author | GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators Zerfu, Taddese Alemu |
| author_browse | GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators Zerfu, Taddese Alemu |
| author_facet | GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators Zerfu, Taddese Alemu |
| author_sort | GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.
INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace144028 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1440282025-10-26T13:01:33Z Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators Zerfu, Taddese Alemu diseases health health policies forecasting modelling mortality BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. 2024-05 2024-05-23T16:28:45Z 2024-05-23T16:28:45Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144028 en Open Access Elsevier GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators. 2024. Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 403(10440): 2204-2256. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00685-8 |
| spellingShingle | diseases health health policies forecasting modelling mortality GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators Zerfu, Taddese Alemu Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title | Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories 2022 2050 a forecasting analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | diseases health health policies forecasting modelling mortality |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/144028 |
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