Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen
Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Ye...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143785 |
| _version_ | 1855539374623555584 |
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| author | Breisinger, Clemens Engelke, Wilfried Mukashov, Askar Wiebelt, Manfred |
| author_browse | Breisinger, Clemens Engelke, Wilfried Mukashov, Askar Wiebelt, Manfred |
| author_facet | Breisinger, Clemens Engelke, Wilfried Mukashov, Askar Wiebelt, Manfred |
| author_sort | Breisinger, Clemens |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace143785 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1437852025-12-08T10:11:39Z Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen Breisinger, Clemens Engelke, Wilfried Mukashov, Askar Wiebelt, Manfred models economic analysis economic growth post-conflict settings employment uncertainty capacity development trade conflicts reconstruction gross national product poverty poverty reduction Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction. 2020-04-01 2024-05-22T12:16:52Z 2024-05-22T12:16:52Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143785 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896293601 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133552 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134258 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Breisinger, Clemens; Engelke, Wilfried; Mukashov, Askar; and Wiebelt, Manfred. 2020. Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen. MENA RP Working Paper 29. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133736. |
| spellingShingle | models economic analysis economic growth post-conflict settings employment uncertainty capacity development trade conflicts reconstruction gross national product poverty poverty reduction Breisinger, Clemens Engelke, Wilfried Mukashov, Askar Wiebelt, Manfred Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen |
| title | Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen |
| title_full | Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen |
| title_fullStr | Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen |
| title_short | Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen |
| title_sort | model based planning for post conflict reconstruction the case of yemen |
| topic | models economic analysis economic growth post-conflict settings employment uncertainty capacity development trade conflicts reconstruction gross national product poverty poverty reduction |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143785 |
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