COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances

Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in t...

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Autores principales: Breisinger, Clemens, Abdelatif, Abla, Raouf, Mariam, Wiebelt, Manfred
Formato: Brief
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143761
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author Breisinger, Clemens
Abdelatif, Abla
Raouf, Mariam
Wiebelt, Manfred
author_browse Abdelatif, Abla
Breisinger, Clemens
Raouf, Mariam
Wiebelt, Manfred
author_facet Breisinger, Clemens
Abdelatif, Abla
Raouf, Mariam
Wiebelt, Manfred
author_sort Breisinger, Clemens
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.
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spelling CGSpace1437612025-11-06T05:10:26Z COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances Breisinger, Clemens Abdelatif, Abla Raouf, Mariam Wiebelt, Manfred economic situation covid-19 tourism remittances economic crises household income pandemics Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now. 2020-02-01 2024-05-22T12:16:41Z 2024-05-22T12:16:41Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143761 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896297838fsp5 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133737 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_12 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Breisinger, Clemens; Abdelatif, Abla; Raouf, Mariam; and Wiebelt, Manfred. 2020. COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances. MENA Policy Note 4. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133663.
spellingShingle economic situation
covid-19
tourism
remittances
economic crises
household income
pandemics
Breisinger, Clemens
Abdelatif, Abla
Raouf, Mariam
Wiebelt, Manfred
COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
title COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
title_full COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
title_fullStr COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
title_short COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
title_sort covid 19 and the egyptian economy estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism suez canal revenues and remittances
topic economic situation
covid-19
tourism
remittances
economic crises
household income
pandemics
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143761
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