The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis

This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated w...

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Main Authors: Baulch, Bob, Botha, Rosemary, Pauw, Karl
Format: Informe técnico
Language:Inglés
Published: International Food Policy Research Institute 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143745
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author Baulch, Bob
Botha, Rosemary
Pauw, Karl
author_browse Baulch, Bob
Botha, Rosemary
Pauw, Karl
author_facet Baulch, Bob
Botha, Rosemary
Pauw, Karl
author_sort Baulch, Bob
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.
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spelling CGSpace1437452025-11-06T05:30:33Z The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis Baulch, Bob Botha, Rosemary Pauw, Karl models economic impact policies covid-19 urban areas modelling physical distancing gross national product rural areas This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. 2020-11-01 2024-05-22T12:16:32Z 2024-05-22T12:16:32Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143745 en https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133788 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134206 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134273 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Baulch, Bob; Botha, Rosemary; and Pauw, Karl. 2020. The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis. MaSSP Report November 2020. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134160.
spellingShingle models
economic impact
policies
covid-19
urban areas
modelling
physical distancing
gross national product
rural areas
Baulch, Bob
Botha, Rosemary
Pauw, Karl
The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis
title The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis
title_full The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis
title_fullStr The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis
title_full_unstemmed The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis
title_short The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis
title_sort short term impacts of covid 19 on the malawian economy 2020 2021 a sam multiplier modeling analysis
topic models
economic impact
policies
covid-19
urban areas
modelling
physical distancing
gross national product
rural areas
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143745
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