ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns
We assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but so...
| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2020
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143495 |
| _version_ | 1855531463425916928 |
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| author | Ajmani, Manmeet Singh Choudhary, Vishruta Kishore, Avinash Roy, Devesh |
| author_browse | Ajmani, Manmeet Singh Choudhary, Vishruta Kishore, Avinash Roy, Devesh |
| author_facet | Ajmani, Manmeet Singh Choudhary, Vishruta Kishore, Avinash Roy, Devesh |
| author_sort | Ajmani, Manmeet Singh |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, we find that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, we identify trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. We also highlight unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace143495 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1434952025-12-02T21:03:03Z ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns Ajmani, Manmeet Singh Choudhary, Vishruta Kishore, Avinash Roy, Devesh models asean trade gravity charts international trade We assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, we find that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, we identify trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. We also highlight unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade. 2020-02-01 2024-05-22T12:14:39Z 2024-05-22T12:14:39Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143495 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/147391 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133278 https://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/leaving-rcep-a-missed-opportunity-120011601418_1.html https://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/2018/05/22/from-look-east-act-east-india-must-think-big-and-act-big.html https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/how-did-sanctions-impact-myanmar/ Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ajmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; and Roy, Devesh. 2020. ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1914. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133662. |
| spellingShingle | models asean trade gravity charts international trade Ajmani, Manmeet Singh Choudhary, Vishruta Kishore, Avinash Roy, Devesh ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| title | ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| title_full | ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| title_fullStr | ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| title_full_unstemmed | ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| title_short | ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| title_sort | asean saarc and the indomitable china in food trade a gravity model analysis of trade patterns |
| topic | models asean trade gravity charts international trade |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143495 |
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