Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia

Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key cr...

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Main Authors: Thomas, Timothy S., Akramov, Kamiljon T., Robertson, Richard D., Nazareth, Vijay, Ilyasov, Jarilkasin
Format: Artículo preliminar
Language:Inglés
Published: International Food Policy Research Institute 2021
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143480
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author Thomas, Timothy S.
Akramov, Kamiljon T.
Robertson, Richard D.
Nazareth, Vijay
Ilyasov, Jarilkasin
author_browse Akramov, Kamiljon T.
Ilyasov, Jarilkasin
Nazareth, Vijay
Robertson, Richard D.
Thomas, Timothy S.
author_facet Thomas, Timothy S.
Akramov, Kamiljon T.
Robertson, Richard D.
Nazareth, Vijay
Ilyasov, Jarilkasin
author_sort Thomas, Timothy S.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key crops in Central Asia will be affected by climate change. We distinguish changes in yields between spring and winter plantings, between irrigated and rainfed crops, and between crops grown with high and low amounts of fertilizer. The results suggest that countries (and areas within countries) that either have moderate summers or grow a number of crops in a relatively cold winter will benefit from climate change, while countries that grow many of the crops in the summer will experience losses.
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spelling CGSpace1434802025-12-02T21:03:13Z Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia Thomas, Timothy S. Akramov, Kamiljon T. Robertson, Richard D. Nazareth, Vijay Ilyasov, Jarilkasin greenhouse gas emissions crops modelling capacity development agriculture yields land reform crop modelling climate change Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key crops in Central Asia will be affected by climate change. We distinguish changes in yields between spring and winter plantings, between irrigated and rainfed crops, and between crops grown with high and low amounts of fertilizer. The results suggest that countries (and areas within countries) that either have moderate summers or grow a number of crops in a relatively cold winter will benefit from climate change, while countries that grow many of the crops in the summer will experience losses. 2021-12-30 2024-05-22T12:14:25Z 2024-05-22T12:14:25Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143480 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Thomas, Timothy S.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Robertson, Richard D.; Nazareth, Vijay; and Ilyasov, Jarilkasin. 2021. Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2081. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134920.
spellingShingle greenhouse gas emissions
crops
modelling
capacity development
agriculture
yields
land reform
crop modelling
climate change
Thomas, Timothy S.
Akramov, Kamiljon T.
Robertson, Richard D.
Nazareth, Vijay
Ilyasov, Jarilkasin
Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
title Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
title_full Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
title_fullStr Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
title_full_unstemmed Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
title_short Climate change, agriculture, and potential crop yields in Central Asia
title_sort climate change agriculture and potential crop yields in central asia
topic greenhouse gas emissions
crops
modelling
capacity development
agriculture
yields
land reform
crop modelling
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143480
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