Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19
Amid extreme uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policymakers have struggled to respond to rapidly changing circumstances with appropriate speed and scale. One obstacle is the dearth of real-time indicators of the pandemic’s economic impacts, especially in low and middle income countr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143465 |
| _version_ | 1855538226899451904 |
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| author | Headey, Derek D. Cho, Ame Lambrecht, Isabel B. Maffioli, Elisa Maria Toth, Russell |
| author_browse | Cho, Ame Headey, Derek D. Lambrecht, Isabel B. Maffioli, Elisa Maria Toth, Russell |
| author_facet | Headey, Derek D. Cho, Ame Lambrecht, Isabel B. Maffioli, Elisa Maria Toth, Russell |
| author_sort | Headey, Derek D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Amid extreme uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policymakers have struggled to respond to rapidly changing circumstances with appropriate speed and scale. One obstacle is the dearth of real-time indicators of the pandemic’s economic impacts, especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Here we show that an ‘immobility’ indicator from GoogleTM – measuring the extent to which consumers are staying at home more – is a powerful predictor of changes in household poverty in Myanmar, as well as aggregate national consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in cross-country data. Combined, this evidence suggests that real-time mobility indicators have the potential to inform a wide range of deliberations, including forecasting models, fine-tuning the timing of both economic stimulus and social protection interventions, and tracking economic recovery from this unprecedented crisis. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace143465 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1434652025-12-08T10:11:39Z Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 Headey, Derek D. Cho, Ame Lambrecht, Isabel B. Maffioli, Elisa Maria Toth, Russell economic growth covid-19 consumption households urban areas indicators capacity development gross national product poverty rural areas Amid extreme uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policymakers have struggled to respond to rapidly changing circumstances with appropriate speed and scale. One obstacle is the dearth of real-time indicators of the pandemic’s economic impacts, especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Here we show that an ‘immobility’ indicator from GoogleTM – measuring the extent to which consumers are staying at home more – is a powerful predictor of changes in household poverty in Myanmar, as well as aggregate national consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in cross-country data. Combined, this evidence suggests that real-time mobility indicators have the potential to inform a wide range of deliberations, including forecasting models, fine-tuning the timing of both economic stimulus and social protection interventions, and tracking economic recovery from this unprecedented crisis. 2021-02-01 2024-05-22T12:14:20Z 2024-05-22T12:14:20Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143465 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Headey, Derek D.; Cho, Ame; Lambrecht, Isabel; Maffioli, Elisa Maria; and Toth, Russell. 2021. Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2002. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134272. |
| spellingShingle | economic growth covid-19 consumption households urban areas indicators capacity development gross national product poverty rural areas Headey, Derek D. Cho, Ame Lambrecht, Isabel B. Maffioli, Elisa Maria Toth, Russell Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 |
| title | Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 |
| title_full | Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 |
| title_short | Consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during COVID-19 |
| title_sort | consumer immobility predicts both macroeconomic contractions and household poverty during covid 19 |
| topic | economic growth covid-19 consumption households urban areas indicators capacity development gross national product poverty rural areas |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143465 |
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