Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]

Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,” presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Eth...

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Main Authors: Thomas, Timothy S., Dorosh, Paul A., Robertson, Richard D.
Format: Book Chapter
Language:Inglés
Published: International Food Policy Research Institute 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143246
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author Thomas, Timothy S.
Dorosh, Paul A.
Robertson, Richard D.
author_browse Dorosh, Paul A.
Robertson, Richard D.
Thomas, Timothy S.
author_facet Thomas, Timothy S.
Dorosh, Paul A.
Robertson, Richard D.
author_sort Thomas, Timothy S.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,” presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, crop yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, weather outcomes and consequent crop yields are likely to become more variable in the future.
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spelling CGSpace1432462025-11-06T04:14:01Z Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios] Thomas, Timothy S. Dorosh, Paul A. Robertson, Richard D. rain models sorghum decision-support systems maize crop yield weather forecasting agrifood systems yields temperature wheat climate change Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,” presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, crop yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, weather outcomes and consequent crop yields are likely to become more variable in the future. 2020-08-01 2024-05-22T12:12:43Z 2024-05-22T12:12:43Z Book Chapter https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143246 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296916 https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296930 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Thomas, Timothy S.; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2020. Climate change impacts on crop yields. In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios, eds. Paul A. Dorosh and Bart Minten. Part One: Natural Resources and Production, Chapter 4, Pp. 97-113. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296916_04.
spellingShingle rain
models
sorghum
decision-support systems
maize
crop yield
weather forecasting
agrifood systems
yields
temperature
wheat
climate change
Thomas, Timothy S.
Dorosh, Paul A.
Robertson, Richard D.
Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]
title Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]
title_full Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]
title_fullStr Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]
title_full_unstemmed Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]
title_short Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]
title_sort climate change impacts on crop yields in ethiopia s agrifood system past trends present challenges and future scenarios
topic rain
models
sorghum
decision-support systems
maize
crop yield
weather forecasting
agrifood systems
yields
temperature
wheat
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143246
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AT robertsonrichardd climatechangeimpactsoncropyieldsinethiopiasagrifoodsystempasttrendspresentchallengesandfuturescenarios