Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger
In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Research Institute and the United States Department of Agricultu...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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Public Library of Science
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142844 |
| _version_ | 1855521172911816704 |
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| author | Wiebe, Keith D. Sulser, Timothy B. Dunston, Shahnila Rosegrant, Mark W. Fuglie, Keith Willenbockel, Dirk Nelson, Gerald C. |
| author_browse | Dunston, Shahnila Fuglie, Keith Nelson, Gerald C. Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. Wiebe, Keith D. Willenbockel, Dirk |
| author_facet | Wiebe, Keith D. Sulser, Timothy B. Dunston, Shahnila Rosegrant, Mark W. Fuglie, Keith Willenbockel, Dirk Nelson, Gerald C. |
| author_sort | Wiebe, Keith D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate the impacts of faster productivity growth for 20 food crops on income and other indicators in 106 countries in developing regions in 2030. We first estimated the value of production in 2015 for each crop using data from FAO. We then used the IMPACT and GLOBE economic models to estimate changes in the value of production and changes in economy-wide income under scenarios of faster crop productivity growth, assuming that increased investment will raise annual rates of yield growth by 25% above baseline growth rates over the period 2015–2030. We found that faster productivity growth in rice, wheat and maize increased economy-wide income in the selected countries in 2030 by 59 billion USD, 27 billion USD and 21 billion USD respectively, followed by banana and yams with increases of 9 billion USD each. While these amounts represent small shares of total GDP, they are 2–15 times current public R&D spending on food crops in developing countries. Income increased most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Faster productivity growth in rice and wheat reduced the population at risk of hunger by 11 million people and 6 million people respectively, followed by plantain and cassava with reductions of about 2 million people each. Changes in adequacy ratios were relatively large for carbohydrates (already in surplus) and relatively small for micronutrients. In general, we found that impacts of faster productivity growth vary widely across crops, regions and outcome indicators, highlighting the importance of identifying the potentially diverse objectives of different decision makers and recognizing possible tradeoffs between objectives. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace142844 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science |
| publisherStr | Public Library of Science |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1428442025-02-24T06:48:14Z Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger Wiebe, Keith D. Sulser, Timothy B. Dunston, Shahnila Rosegrant, Mark W. Fuglie, Keith Willenbockel, Dirk Nelson, Gerald C. models sorghum bananas crops cereals modelling hunger agriculture nutrition fruits productivity cassava agricultural productivity wheat In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate the impacts of faster productivity growth for 20 food crops on income and other indicators in 106 countries in developing regions in 2030. We first estimated the value of production in 2015 for each crop using data from FAO. We then used the IMPACT and GLOBE economic models to estimate changes in the value of production and changes in economy-wide income under scenarios of faster crop productivity growth, assuming that increased investment will raise annual rates of yield growth by 25% above baseline growth rates over the period 2015–2030. We found that faster productivity growth in rice, wheat and maize increased economy-wide income in the selected countries in 2030 by 59 billion USD, 27 billion USD and 21 billion USD respectively, followed by banana and yams with increases of 9 billion USD each. While these amounts represent small shares of total GDP, they are 2–15 times current public R&D spending on food crops in developing countries. Income increased most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Faster productivity growth in rice and wheat reduced the population at risk of hunger by 11 million people and 6 million people respectively, followed by plantain and cassava with reductions of about 2 million people each. Changes in adequacy ratios were relatively large for carbohydrates (already in surplus) and relatively small for micronutrients. In general, we found that impacts of faster productivity growth vary widely across crops, regions and outcome indicators, highlighting the importance of identifying the potentially diverse objectives of different decision makers and recognizing possible tradeoffs between objectives. 2021-04-15 2024-05-22T12:11:10Z 2024-05-22T12:11:10Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142844 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150391 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/146817 Open Access Public Library of Science Wiebe, Keith D.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Fuglie, Keith; Willenbockel, Dirk; and Nelson, Gerald C. 2021. Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger. PLoS ONE 16(4): e024999. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249994 |
| spellingShingle | models sorghum bananas crops cereals modelling hunger agriculture nutrition fruits productivity cassava agricultural productivity wheat Wiebe, Keith D. Sulser, Timothy B. Dunston, Shahnila Rosegrant, Mark W. Fuglie, Keith Willenbockel, Dirk Nelson, Gerald C. Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger |
| title | Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger |
| title_full | Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger |
| title_fullStr | Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger |
| title_short | Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on crops to end hunger |
| title_sort | modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the cgiar initiative on crops to end hunger |
| topic | models sorghum bananas crops cereals modelling hunger agriculture nutrition fruits productivity cassava agricultural productivity wheat |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142844 |
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