Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections
A recent review of common modelling practices conducted during the Workshop “Shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models” held at OECD in January 2018 showed that models include different assumptions on changes to the production function along their dynamic baselines...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142711 |
| _version_ | 1855518693368266752 |
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| author | Chateau, Jean Corong, Erwin Lanzi, Eliza Carrico, Caitlyn Fouré, Jean Laborde Debucquet, David |
| author_browse | Carrico, Caitlyn Chateau, Jean Corong, Erwin Fouré, Jean Laborde Debucquet, David Lanzi, Eliza |
| author_facet | Chateau, Jean Corong, Erwin Lanzi, Eliza Carrico, Caitlyn Fouré, Jean Laborde Debucquet, David |
| author_sort | Chateau, Jean |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A recent review of common modelling practices conducted during the Workshop “Shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models” held at OECD in January 2018 showed that models include different assumptions on changes to the production function along their dynamic baselines. These changes imply shifts in sectoral compositions for the projected economies (i.e. structural change). This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams about supply-side drivers of structural change: primary factor efficiency and changes in input-output structures of the production function over time. We critically review various methodologies, identifying state-of-the-art practices, and we propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models. The review highlights that most models take into account structural change to some extent. However, more effort is needed in modelling projected changes in input-output structures. Furthermore, this review is helpful for understanding the functioning of dynamic CGE models and in assisting dynamic CGE modelers in building their own baselines. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace142711 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University |
| publisherStr | Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1427112025-12-08T10:29:22Z Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections Chateau, Jean Corong, Erwin Lanzi, Eliza Carrico, Caitlyn Fouré, Jean Laborde Debucquet, David structural adjustment models forecasting modelling input output analysis computable general equilibrium models gross national product A recent review of common modelling practices conducted during the Workshop “Shaping long-term baselines with Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models” held at OECD in January 2018 showed that models include different assumptions on changes to the production function along their dynamic baselines. These changes imply shifts in sectoral compositions for the projected economies (i.e. structural change). This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams about supply-side drivers of structural change: primary factor efficiency and changes in input-output structures of the production function over time. We critically review various methodologies, identifying state-of-the-art practices, and we propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models. The review highlights that most models take into account structural change to some extent. However, more effort is needed in modelling projected changes in input-output structures. Furthermore, this review is helpful for understanding the functioning of dynamic CGE models and in assisting dynamic CGE modelers in building their own baselines. 2020-10-01 2024-05-22T12:10:55Z 2024-05-22T12:10:55Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142711 en Open Access Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University Chateau, Jean; Corong, Erwin; Lanzi, Eliza; Carrico, Caitlyn; Fouré, Jean; and Laborde Debucquet, David. 2020. Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections. Journal of Global Economic Analysis 5(1): 109-161. https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050104AF |
| spellingShingle | structural adjustment models forecasting modelling input output analysis computable general equilibrium models gross national product Chateau, Jean Corong, Erwin Lanzi, Eliza Carrico, Caitlyn Fouré, Jean Laborde Debucquet, David Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| title | Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| title_full | Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| title_fullStr | Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| title_short | Characterizing supply-side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| title_sort | characterizing supply side drivers of structural change in the construction of economic baseline projections |
| topic | structural adjustment models forecasting modelling input output analysis computable general equilibrium models gross national product |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142711 |
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