Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespecti...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
IOP Publishing Ltd.
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142509 |
| _version_ | 1855535102287675392 |
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| author | Bell, Andrew R. Wrathall, David J. Mueller, Valerie Chen, Joyce Oppenheimer, Michael |
| author_browse | Bell, Andrew R. Chen, Joyce Mueller, Valerie Oppenheimer, Michael Wrathall, David J. |
| author_facet | Bell, Andrew R. Wrathall, David J. Mueller, Valerie Chen, Joyce Oppenheimer, Michael |
| author_sort | Bell, Andrew R. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ~4,800,000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called "trapped" populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace142509 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing Ltd. |
| publisherStr | IOP Publishing Ltd. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1425092025-12-08T10:11:39Z Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 Bell, Andrew R. Wrathall, David J. Mueller, Valerie Chen, Joyce Oppenheimer, Michael forecasting climate sea level measurement migration coastal zones sea level climate change To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ~4,800,000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called "trapped" populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses. 2021-02-01 2024-05-22T12:10:36Z 2024-05-22T12:10:36Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142509 en Open Access IOP Publishing Ltd. Bell, Andrew Reid; Wrathall, David J.; Mueller, Valerie; Chen, Joyce; Oppenheimer, Michael; et al. 2021. Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100. Environmental Research Letters 16(2): 024045. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b |
| spellingShingle | forecasting climate sea level measurement migration coastal zones sea level climate change Bell, Andrew R. Wrathall, David J. Mueller, Valerie Chen, Joyce Oppenheimer, Michael Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_full | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_short | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_sort | migration towards bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea level rise through 2100 |
| topic | forecasting climate sea level measurement migration coastal zones sea level climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142509 |
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