The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa
We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity wi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Springer
2021
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142412 |
| _version_ | 1855520602478084096 |
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| author | Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei Strzepek, Kenneth M. Thomas, Timothy S. Gao, Xiang Arndt, Channing |
| author_browse | Arndt, Channing Gao, Xiang Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei Strzepek, Kenneth M. Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_facet | Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei Strzepek, Kenneth M. Thomas, Timothy S. Gao, Xiang Arndt, Channing |
| author_sort | Schlosser, Adam |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace142412 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1424122025-12-08T10:11:39Z The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei Strzepek, Kenneth M. Thomas, Timothy S. Gao, Xiang Arndt, Channing hydroclimatology modelling precipitation climate change mitigation temperature risk seasonality climate change We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt. 2021-10-27 2024-05-22T12:10:27Z 2024-05-22T12:10:27Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142412 en https://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/17483 https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/images/SA-TIED_WP101.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03235-5 https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.787582 Open Access Springer Schlosser, Adam; Sokolov, Andrei; Strzepek Ken; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gao, Xiang; and Arndt, Channing. 2021. The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa. Climatic Change 168: 28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03235-5 |
| spellingShingle | hydroclimatology modelling precipitation climate change mitigation temperature risk seasonality climate change Schlosser, Adam Sokolov, Andrei Strzepek, Kenneth M. Thomas, Timothy S. Gao, Xiang Arndt, Channing The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa |
| title | The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa |
| title_full | The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa |
| title_fullStr | The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa |
| title_short | The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa |
| title_sort | changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across south africa |
| topic | hydroclimatology modelling precipitation climate change mitigation temperature risk seasonality climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142412 |
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