Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis
This study assesses the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Agricultural Economics Research Association
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142281 |
| _version_ | 1855536297154707456 |
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| author | Laborde Debucquet, David Martin, Will Vos, Rob |
| author_browse | Laborde Debucquet, David Martin, Will Vos, Rob |
| author_facet | Laborde Debucquet, David Martin, Will Vos, Rob |
| author_sort | Laborde Debucquet, David |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study assesses the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and reductions in savings and investment. These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models. The simulations suggest that the global recession caused by COVID‐19 will be much deeper than that of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub‐Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The COVID‐19‐related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas declines in savings soften the adverse impacts on food consumption. Almost 150 million people are projected to fall into extreme poverty and food insecurity. Decomposition of the results shows that approaches assuming uniform income shocks would underestimate the impact by as much as one‐third, emphasizing the need for the more refined approach of this study. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace142281 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Agricultural Economics Research Association |
| publisherStr | Agricultural Economics Research Association |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1422812025-02-24T06:45:41Z Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis Laborde Debucquet, David Martin, Will Vos, Rob models covid-19 computable general equilibrium models food security poverty diet This study assesses the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and reductions in savings and investment. These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models. The simulations suggest that the global recession caused by COVID‐19 will be much deeper than that of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub‐Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The COVID‐19‐related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas declines in savings soften the adverse impacts on food consumption. Almost 150 million people are projected to fall into extreme poverty and food insecurity. Decomposition of the results shows that approaches assuming uniform income shocks would underestimate the impact by as much as one‐third, emphasizing the need for the more refined approach of this study. 2021-06-07 2024-05-22T12:10:15Z 2024-05-22T12:10:15Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142281 en https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc4765 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/15740862/2021/52/3 Open Access Agricultural Economics Research Association Laborde Debucquet, David; Martin, Will; and Vos, Rob. 2021. Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis. Agricultural Economics 52(3): 375-390. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12624 |
| spellingShingle | models covid-19 computable general equilibrium models food security poverty diet Laborde Debucquet, David Martin, Will Vos, Rob Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis |
| title | Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis |
| title_full | Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis |
| title_short | Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis |
| title_sort | impacts of covid 19 on global poverty food security and diets insights from global model scenario analysis |
| topic | models covid-19 computable general equilibrium models food security poverty diet |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142281 |
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