Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis
This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It also presents a series of recovery scenarios. Four channels by which a lockdown and other efforts are expected to influence economic activity are disting...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
United Nations University
2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142094 |
| _version_ | 1855528099705257984 |
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| author | Arndt, Channing Davies, Rob Gabriel, Sherwin Harris, Laurence Makrelov, Konstantin Modise, Boipuso Robinson, Sherman Simbanegavi, Witness van Seventer, Dirk Anderson, Lillian |
| author_browse | Anderson, Lillian Arndt, Channing Davies, Rob Gabriel, Sherwin Harris, Laurence Makrelov, Konstantin Modise, Boipuso Robinson, Sherman Simbanegavi, Witness van Seventer, Dirk |
| author_facet | Arndt, Channing Davies, Rob Gabriel, Sherwin Harris, Laurence Makrelov, Konstantin Modise, Boipuso Robinson, Sherman Simbanegavi, Witness van Seventer, Dirk Anderson, Lillian |
| author_sort | Arndt, Channing |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It also presents a series of recovery scenarios. Four channels by which a lockdown and other efforts are expected to influence economic activity are distinguished. In total, these lockdown measures have profound economic implications. The implications of the pandemic in the rest of the world, and hence on demand for South Africa’s export, are not as large as the effects of the domestic lockdown but are still very large by any normal measure. In terms of recovery, the ‘Quick’ recovery scenario results in a GDP decline of about 5 per cent by the end of 2020—an economic outcome that would have been considered catastrophically bad a little more than one month ago. Persistent effects of the Covid-19 would bring even worse outcomes for GDP in line with the ‘Slow’ and ‘Long’ recovery scenarios. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace142094 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateRange | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | United Nations University |
| publisherStr | United Nations University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1420942025-12-08T10:29:22Z Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis Arndt, Channing Davies, Rob Gabriel, Sherwin Harris, Laurence Makrelov, Konstantin Modise, Boipuso Robinson, Sherman Simbanegavi, Witness van Seventer, Dirk Anderson, Lillian foods economic situation economic impact fishing supply balance covid-19 growth rate services agriculture household income trade disease prevention manufacturing gross national product forestry This paper reports ‘first pass’ estimates of the costs of the lock-down implemented by the South African government beginning on 27 March 2020. It also presents a series of recovery scenarios. Four channels by which a lockdown and other efforts are expected to influence economic activity are distinguished. In total, these lockdown measures have profound economic implications. The implications of the pandemic in the rest of the world, and hence on demand for South Africa’s export, are not as large as the effects of the domestic lockdown but are still very large by any normal measure. In terms of recovery, the ‘Quick’ recovery scenario results in a GDP decline of about 5 per cent by the end of 2020—an economic outcome that would have been considered catastrophically bad a little more than one month ago. Persistent effects of the Covid-19 would bring even worse outcomes for GDP in line with the ‘Slow’ and ‘Long’ recovery scenarios. 2020-05-01 2024-05-22T12:09:56Z 2024-05-22T12:09:56Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142094 en https://theconversation.com/who-has-been-hit-hardest-by-south-africas-lockdown-we-found-some-answers-138481 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133762_06 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100410 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134455 Open Access United Nations University Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Laurence; Makrelov, Konstantin; Modise, Boipuso; Robinson, Sherman; Simbanegavi, Witness; van Seventer, Dirk; and Anderson, Lillian. 2020. Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis. SA-TIED Working Paper 111. https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/article/impact-covid-19-south-african-economy-initial-analysis |
| spellingShingle | foods economic situation economic impact fishing supply balance covid-19 growth rate services agriculture household income trade disease prevention manufacturing gross national product forestry Arndt, Channing Davies, Rob Gabriel, Sherwin Harris, Laurence Makrelov, Konstantin Modise, Boipuso Robinson, Sherman Simbanegavi, Witness van Seventer, Dirk Anderson, Lillian Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis |
| title | Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis |
| title_full | Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis |
| title_short | Impact of Covid-19 on the South African economy: An initial analysis |
| title_sort | impact of covid 19 on the south african economy an initial analysis |
| topic | foods economic situation economic impact fishing supply balance covid-19 growth rate services agriculture household income trade disease prevention manufacturing gross national product forestry |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142094 |
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