Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach
Rwanda’s response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic sub...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Brief |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142083 |
| _version_ | 1855527383239491584 |
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| author | Aragie, Emerta A. Diao, Xinshen Robinson, Sherman Rosenbach, Gracie Spielman, David J. Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Aragie, Emerta A. Diao, Xinshen Robinson, Sherman Rosenbach, Gracie Spielman, David J. Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Aragie, Emerta A. Diao, Xinshen Robinson, Sherman Rosenbach, Gracie Spielman, David J. Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Aragie, Emerta A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Rwanda’s response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace142083 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1420832025-11-06T04:34:37Z Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach Aragie, Emerta A. Diao, Xinshen Robinson, Sherman Rosenbach, Gracie Spielman, David J. Thurlow, James economic impact policies covid-19 modelling agrifood systems quarantine poverty Rwanda’s response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade. 2021-05-27 2024-05-22T12:09:55Z 2024-05-22T12:09:55Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142083 en https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134400 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Aragie, Emerta; Diao, Xinshen; Robinson, Sherman; Rosenbach, Gracie; Spielman, David J.; and Thurlow, James. 2021. Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach. Rwanda SSP 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134421. |
| spellingShingle | economic impact policies covid-19 modelling agrifood systems quarantine poverty Aragie, Emerta A. Diao, Xinshen Robinson, Sherman Rosenbach, Gracie Spielman, David J. Thurlow, James Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach |
| title | Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach |
| title_full | Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach |
| title_fullStr | Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach |
| title_short | Synopsis: Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach |
| title_sort | synopsis assessing the economywide impacts of covid 19 on rwanda s economy agri food system and poverty a social accounting matrix sam multiplier approach |
| topic | economic impact policies covid-19 modelling agrifood systems quarantine poverty |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/142083 |
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