Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emi...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
IOP Publishing
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141708 |
| _version_ | 1855515511772676096 |
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| author | Mishra, Abhijeet Humpenöder, Florian Reyer, Christopher P. O. Beier, Felicitas Lotze-Campen, Hermann Popp, Alexander |
| author_browse | Beier, Felicitas Humpenöder, Florian Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mishra, Abhijeet Popp, Alexander Reyer, Christopher P. O. |
| author_facet | Mishra, Abhijeet Humpenöder, Florian Reyer, Christopher P. O. Beier, Felicitas Lotze-Campen, Hermann Popp, Alexander |
| author_sort | Mishra, Abhijeet |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We show that if the COP26 declaration to end deforestation is fully implemented globally, about 167 Mha of deforestation could be avoided until 2050, compared to a baseline scenario which does not have extended forest protection. However, avoided deforestation and associated emissions come at the cost of strongly increased conversion of unprotected non-forested land to agricultural land, while land-use intensification in most regions is similar compared to a baseline scenario. Global initiatives are needed to facilitate a common dialogue on addressing the possible carbon emissions and non-forest leakage effects due to the expedited loss of non-forested land under a policy aimed at halting deforestation by 2030. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace141708 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| publisherStr | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1417082025-12-08T09:54:28Z Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion Mishra, Abhijeet Humpenöder, Florian Reyer, Christopher P. O. Beier, Felicitas Lotze-Campen, Hermann Popp, Alexander land use deforestation forest management climate change land-use mapping modelling The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We show that if the COP26 declaration to end deforestation is fully implemented globally, about 167 Mha of deforestation could be avoided until 2050, compared to a baseline scenario which does not have extended forest protection. However, avoided deforestation and associated emissions come at the cost of strongly increased conversion of unprotected non-forested land to agricultural land, while land-use intensification in most regions is similar compared to a baseline scenario. Global initiatives are needed to facilitate a common dialogue on addressing the possible carbon emissions and non-forest leakage effects due to the expedited loss of non-forested land under a policy aimed at halting deforestation by 2030. 2024-05-01 2024-05-02T15:44:00Z 2024-05-02T15:44:00Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141708 en Open Access IOP Publishing Mishra, Abhijeet; Humpenöder, Florian; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Beier, Felicitas; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; and Popp, Alexander. 2024. Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion. Environmental Research Letters 19(5). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b4 |
| spellingShingle | land use deforestation forest management climate change land-use mapping modelling Mishra, Abhijeet Humpenöder, Florian Reyer, Christopher P. O. Beier, Felicitas Lotze-Campen, Hermann Popp, Alexander Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion |
| title | Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion |
| title_full | Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion |
| title_fullStr | Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion |
| title_short | Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion |
| title_sort | emission savings through the cop26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non forest land conversion |
| topic | land use deforestation forest management climate change land-use mapping modelling |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141708 |
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