Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion

The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emi...

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Autores principales: Mishra, Abhijeet, Humpenöder, Florian, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Beier, Felicitas, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Popp, Alexander
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: IOP Publishing 2024
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141708
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author Mishra, Abhijeet
Humpenöder, Florian
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Beier, Felicitas
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Popp, Alexander
author_browse Beier, Felicitas
Humpenöder, Florian
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Mishra, Abhijeet
Popp, Alexander
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
author_facet Mishra, Abhijeet
Humpenöder, Florian
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Beier, Felicitas
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Popp, Alexander
author_sort Mishra, Abhijeet
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We show that if the COP26 declaration to end deforestation is fully implemented globally, about 167 Mha of deforestation could be avoided until 2050, compared to a baseline scenario which does not have extended forest protection. However, avoided deforestation and associated emissions come at the cost of strongly increased conversion of unprotected non-forested land to agricultural land, while land-use intensification in most regions is similar compared to a baseline scenario. Global initiatives are needed to facilitate a common dialogue on addressing the possible carbon emissions and non-forest leakage effects due to the expedited loss of non-forested land under a policy aimed at halting deforestation by 2030.
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spelling CGSpace1417082025-12-08T09:54:28Z Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion Mishra, Abhijeet Humpenöder, Florian Reyer, Christopher P. O. Beier, Felicitas Lotze-Campen, Hermann Popp, Alexander land use deforestation forest management climate change land-use mapping modelling The majority of signatories to The United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2021 (COP26) made a declaration to end deforestation by 2030. Here, we quantify future changes in land use and associated CO2 emissions to examine the impact of ending deforestation by 2030 on global land dynamics and emissions using an open-source land-use model. We show that if the COP26 declaration to end deforestation is fully implemented globally, about 167 Mha of deforestation could be avoided until 2050, compared to a baseline scenario which does not have extended forest protection. However, avoided deforestation and associated emissions come at the cost of strongly increased conversion of unprotected non-forested land to agricultural land, while land-use intensification in most regions is similar compared to a baseline scenario. Global initiatives are needed to facilitate a common dialogue on addressing the possible carbon emissions and non-forest leakage effects due to the expedited loss of non-forested land under a policy aimed at halting deforestation by 2030. 2024-05-01 2024-05-02T15:44:00Z 2024-05-02T15:44:00Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141708 en Open Access IOP Publishing Mishra, Abhijeet; Humpenöder, Florian; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Beier, Felicitas; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; and Popp, Alexander. 2024. Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion. Environmental Research Letters 19(5). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b4
spellingShingle land use
deforestation
forest management
climate change
land-use mapping
modelling
Mishra, Abhijeet
Humpenöder, Florian
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Beier, Felicitas
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Popp, Alexander
Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
title Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
title_full Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
title_fullStr Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
title_full_unstemmed Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
title_short Emission savings through the COP26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non-forest land conversion
title_sort emission savings through the cop26 declaration of deforestation could come at the expense of non forest land conversion
topic land use
deforestation
forest management
climate change
land-use mapping
modelling
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141708
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