Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize trad...

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Autores principales: Vargas, Carolina M., Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O., Reardon, Thomas
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Emerald Publishing Limited 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141616
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author Vargas, Carolina M.
Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.
Reardon, Thomas
author_browse Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.
Reardon, Thomas
Vargas, Carolina M.
author_facet Vargas, Carolina M.
Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.
Reardon, Thomas
author_sort Vargas, Carolina M.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Purpose We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts). Findings Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks. Research limitations/implications The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income. Originality/value This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.
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spelling CGSpace1416162025-12-19T19:02:51Z Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks Vargas, Carolina M. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. Reardon, Thomas climate maize violence vulnerability markets climate change covid-19 Purpose We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts). Findings Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks. Research limitations/implications The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income. Originality/value This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey. 2025-11-18 2024-04-25T18:56:45Z 2024-04-25T18:56:45Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141616 en Open Access Emerald Publishing Limited Vargas, Carolina M.; Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; and Reardon, Thomas. 2025. Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 15(6): 1132-1150. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-08-2023-0214
spellingShingle climate
maize
violence
vulnerability
markets
climate change
covid-19
Vargas, Carolina M.
Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.
Reardon, Thomas
Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks
title Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks
title_full Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks
title_fullStr Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks
title_full_unstemmed Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks
title_short Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks
title_sort vulnerability of nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate violence disease and cost shocks
topic climate
maize
violence
vulnerability
markets
climate change
covid-19
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141616
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AT liverpooltasielenissawedao vulnerabilityofnigerianmaizetraderstoaconfluenceofclimateviolencediseaseandcostshocks
AT reardonthomas vulnerabilityofnigerianmaizetraderstoaconfluenceofclimateviolencediseaseandcostshocks