Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty
Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade a...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2022
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141453 |
| _version_ | 1855528885393817600 |
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| author | Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed Rana, Abdul Wajid |
| author_browse | Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed Rana, Abdul Wajid |
| author_facet | Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed Rana, Abdul Wajid |
| author_sort | Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace141453 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1414532025-11-06T06:35:48Z Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed Rana, Abdul Wajid export controls globalization fertilizer industry war economics trade commodity markets armed conflicts Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). 2022-10-13 2024-04-12T13:37:59Z 2024-04-12T13:37:59Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141453 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; and Wana, Abdul Wajid. 2022. Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty. Global Crisis Country Project Paper October 2022. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136406. |
| spellingShingle | export controls globalization fertilizer industry war economics trade commodity markets armed conflicts Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed Rana, Abdul Wajid Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| title | Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| title_full | Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| title_fullStr | Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| title_short | Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| title_sort | pakistan impacts of the ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty |
| topic | export controls globalization fertilizer industry war economics trade commodity markets armed conflicts |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141453 |
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