A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets

The past forty years have witnessed a rapid expansion of grain and oilseed production in the southern hemisphere, particularly in South America. The growth of southern hemisphere production is significant, not only because it has increased supplies to meet growing world food needs but also because i...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Miranda, Mario J., Glauber, Joseph W.
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141277
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author Miranda, Mario J.
Glauber, Joseph W.
author_browse Glauber, Joseph W.
Miranda, Mario J.
author_facet Miranda, Mario J.
Glauber, Joseph W.
author_sort Miranda, Mario J.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The past forty years have witnessed a rapid expansion of grain and oilseed production in the southern hemisphere, particularly in South America. The growth of southern hemisphere production is significant, not only because it has increased supplies to meet growing world food needs but also because it has effectively shortened the global crop growing cycle from twelve months to six months. In this paper, we develop and analyze a semi‐annual stochastic spatial–temporal equilibrium model of a generic agricultural market with two major exporting regions, North and South, which plant and harvest at different times of the year. As a case study, we calibrate our model parameters to reflect the stylized facts of the global soybean market between 1980 and 2019, with the United States serving as North and Brazil and Argentina serving as South. We find that more balanced production, with both hemispheres producing nearly equal amounts at different times of the year, has, from a global perspective, shortened the traditional crop “season” from twelve months to six months, allowing semi‐annual adjustments to planned production that stabilize supply and prices in all regions while reducing global inventories.
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publishDate 2022
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spelling CGSpace1412772025-12-08T10:11:39Z A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets Miranda, Mario J. Glauber, Joseph W. agricultural products commodities storage soybeans markets trade agricultural trade The past forty years have witnessed a rapid expansion of grain and oilseed production in the southern hemisphere, particularly in South America. The growth of southern hemisphere production is significant, not only because it has increased supplies to meet growing world food needs but also because it has effectively shortened the global crop growing cycle from twelve months to six months. In this paper, we develop and analyze a semi‐annual stochastic spatial–temporal equilibrium model of a generic agricultural market with two major exporting regions, North and South, which plant and harvest at different times of the year. As a case study, we calibrate our model parameters to reflect the stylized facts of the global soybean market between 1980 and 2019, with the United States serving as North and Brazil and Argentina serving as South. We find that more balanced production, with both hemispheres producing nearly equal amounts at different times of the year, has, from a global perspective, shortened the traditional crop “season” from twelve months to six months, allowing semi‐annual adjustments to planned production that stabilize supply and prices in all regions while reducing global inventories. 2022-03 2024-04-12T13:37:36Z 2024-04-12T13:37:36Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141277 en Limited Access Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Miranda, Mario J.; and Glauber, Joseph W. 2022. A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 104(2): 812-830. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12241
spellingShingle agricultural products
commodities
storage
soybeans
markets
trade
agricultural trade
Miranda, Mario J.
Glauber, Joseph W.
A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
title A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
title_full A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
title_fullStr A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
title_full_unstemmed A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
title_short A model of asynchronous bi-hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
title_sort model of asynchronous bi hemispheric production in global agricultural commodity markets
topic agricultural products
commodities
storage
soybeans
markets
trade
agricultural trade
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141277
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