Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization

After a long secular decline in the 20th century, food prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, 2010-11 and again in 2021-22. While often termed “food crises”, economists disagree on whether rising food prices increase or decrease poverty: poor people have high food expenditure shares but also produce and...

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Autores principales: Headey, Derek D., Hirvonen, Kalle
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140833
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author Headey, Derek D.
Hirvonen, Kalle
author_browse Headey, Derek D.
Hirvonen, Kalle
author_facet Headey, Derek D.
Hirvonen, Kalle
author_sort Headey, Derek D.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description After a long secular decline in the 20th century, food prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, 2010-11 and again in 2021-22. While often termed “food crises”, economists disagree on whether rising food prices increase or decrease poverty: poor people have high food expenditure shares but also produce and sell food, and higher food prices trigger food supply responses and growth in rural wages. One limitation of previous econometric studies is their focus on medium-run multi-year impacts, even though simulation analyses typically find negative impacts in the short run. In this study we therefore construct and analyze a novel short run panel of annual poverty and food price data for 33 middle income countries (MICs) over 2000-2019. Using standard panel data techniques, we find that increases in the real price of food predict reductions in $3.20/day poverty in less urbanized countries but increases in poverty in the most urbanized MICs.
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spelling CGSpace1408332025-12-02T21:03:13Z Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization Headey, Derek D. Hirvonen, Kalle crises inflation urbanization developing countries food security food inflation food prices poverty After a long secular decline in the 20th century, food prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, 2010-11 and again in 2021-22. While often termed “food crises”, economists disagree on whether rising food prices increase or decrease poverty: poor people have high food expenditure shares but also produce and sell food, and higher food prices trigger food supply responses and growth in rural wages. One limitation of previous econometric studies is their focus on medium-run multi-year impacts, even though simulation analyses typically find negative impacts in the short run. In this study we therefore construct and analyze a novel short run panel of annual poverty and food price data for 33 middle income countries (MICs) over 2000-2019. Using standard panel data techniques, we find that increases in the real price of food predict reductions in $3.20/day poverty in less urbanized countries but increases in poverty in the most urbanized MICs. 2022-08-30 2024-04-12T13:36:43Z 2024-04-12T13:36:43Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140833 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Headey, Derek D.; and Hirvonen, Kalle. 2022. Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization in the short run. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2133. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136356.
spellingShingle crises
inflation
urbanization
developing countries
food security
food inflation
food prices
poverty
Headey, Derek D.
Hirvonen, Kalle
Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization
title Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization
title_full Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization
title_fullStr Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization
title_full_unstemmed Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization
title_short Food inflation, poverty, and urbanization
title_sort food inflation poverty and urbanization
topic crises
inflation
urbanization
developing countries
food security
food inflation
food prices
poverty
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140833
work_keys_str_mv AT headeyderekd foodinflationpovertyandurbanization
AT hirvonenkalle foodinflationpovertyandurbanization