Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia
Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140831 |
| _version_ | 1855520727170547712 |
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| author | Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf |
| author_browse | Abay, Kibrom A. Abay, Mehari Hiluf Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Tafere, Kibrom |
| author_facet | Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf |
| author_sort | Abay, Kibrom A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace140831 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1408312025-12-02T21:03:13Z Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf surveys households employment food access labour market access livelihoods food security civil conflict conflicts Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. We use difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) on households’ exposure to violent conflict, we show that exposure to one additional battle leads to 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were the most affected by the conflict while farming activities were relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas were much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of an on-going civil conflict, providing direct evidence on how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. 2022-03-01 2024-04-12T13:36:43Z 2024-04-12T13:36:43Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140831 en https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001015 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Abay, Kibrom A.; Tafere, Kibrom; Berhane, Guush; Chamberlin, Jordan; and Abay, Mehari Hiluf. 2022. Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2108. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.135056. |
| spellingShingle | surveys households employment food access labour market access livelihoods food security civil conflict conflicts Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_short | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_sort | near real time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war evidence from ethiopia |
| topic | surveys households employment food access labour market access livelihoods food security civil conflict conflicts |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140831 |
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