Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities
This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (e.g., ban, tax, licensing etc.) were applied: the 2008 and 2010 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic,...
| Autores principales: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687 |
| _version_ | 1855527514658570240 |
|---|---|
| author | Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David |
| author_browse | Laborde Debucquet, David Mamun, Abdullah |
| author_facet | Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David |
| author_sort | Mamun, Abdullah |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (e.g., ban, tax, licensing etc.) were applied: the 2008 and 2010 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price change is measured from a reference level in the long interval than the short interval. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, commodity share in production and export, weather condition increases the chances of imposing export restrictions. Per capita income, population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, political economy indicators - all have a negative influence on this likelihood. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace140687 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1406872025-11-06T06:27:12Z Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David agricultural products commodities COVID-19 export controls international trade war trade liberalization exports This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (e.g., ban, tax, licensing etc.) were applied: the 2008 and 2010 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price change is measured from a reference level in the long interval than the short interval. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, commodity share in production and export, weather condition increases the chances of imposing export restrictions. Per capita income, population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, political economy indicators - all have a negative influence on this likelihood. 2024-03-29 2024-04-01T15:13:49Z 2024-04-01T15:13:49Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Mamun, Abdullah; and Laborde Debucquet, David. 2024. Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2246. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687 |
| spellingShingle | agricultural products commodities COVID-19 export controls international trade war trade liberalization exports Mamun, Abdullah Laborde Debucquet, David Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_full | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_fullStr | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_short | Role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| title_sort | role of international price and domestic inflation in triggering export restrictions on food commodities |
| topic | agricultural products commodities COVID-19 export controls international trade war trade liberalization exports |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140687 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mamunabdullah roleofinternationalpriceanddomesticinflationintriggeringexportrestrictionsonfoodcommodities AT labordedebucquetdavid roleofinternationalpriceanddomesticinflationintriggeringexportrestrictionsonfoodcommodities |