The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty
The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and p...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés Arabic |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2023
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140293 |
| _version_ | 1855541485910360064 |
|---|---|
| author | Siddig, Khalid Raouf, Mariam Ahmed, Mosab O. M. |
| author_browse | Ahmed, Mosab O. M. Raouf, Mariam Siddig, Khalid |
| author_facet | Siddig, Khalid Raouf, Mariam Ahmed, Mosab O. M. |
| author_sort | Siddig, Khalid |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace140293 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés Arabic |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1402932025-11-06T07:41:15Z The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty Siddig, Khalid Raouf, Mariam Ahmed, Mosab O. M. financial institutions models production household income markets trade economic activities infrastructure livelihoods conflicts poverty The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting. 2023-08-21 2024-03-14T12:09:15Z 2024-03-14T12:09:15Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140293 en ar https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136835 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136724 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136701 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136628 Open Access application/pdf application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Siddig, Khalid; Raouf, Mariam; and Ahmed, Mosab O. M. 2023. The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty. Sudan SSP Working Paper 12. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136843. |
| spellingShingle | financial institutions models production household income markets trade economic activities infrastructure livelihoods conflicts poverty Siddig, Khalid Raouf, Mariam Ahmed, Mosab O. M. The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty |
| title | The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty |
| title_full | The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty |
| title_fullStr | The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty |
| title_full_unstemmed | The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty |
| title_short | The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty |
| title_sort | economy wide impact of sudan s ongoing conflict implications on economic activity agrifood system and poverty |
| topic | financial institutions models production household income markets trade economic activities infrastructure livelihoods conflicts poverty |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140293 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT siddigkhalid theeconomywideimpactofsudansongoingconflictimplicationsoneconomicactivityagrifoodsystemandpoverty AT raoufmariam theeconomywideimpactofsudansongoingconflictimplicationsoneconomicactivityagrifoodsystemandpoverty AT ahmedmosabom theeconomywideimpactofsudansongoingconflictimplicationsoneconomicactivityagrifoodsystemandpoverty AT siddigkhalid economywideimpactofsudansongoingconflictimplicationsoneconomicactivityagrifoodsystemandpoverty AT raoufmariam economywideimpactofsudansongoingconflictimplicationsoneconomicactivityagrifoodsystemandpoverty AT ahmedmosabom economywideimpactofsudansongoingconflictimplicationsoneconomicactivityagrifoodsystemandpoverty |