Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility
The Russia-Ukraine war has caused significant price volatility in agricultural markets over the past year — for wheat, in particular, price levels and price volatility reached the highest levels since the 2007/08 marketing year. Both have fallen back to pre-war levels over the past six months, but v...
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| Format: | Book Chapter |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140063 |
| _version_ | 1855532102105169920 |
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| author | Glauber, Joseph W. |
| author_browse | Glauber, Joseph W. |
| author_facet | Glauber, Joseph W. |
| author_sort | Glauber, Joseph W. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The Russia-Ukraine war has caused significant price volatility in agricultural markets over the past year — for wheat, in particular, price levels and price volatility reached the highest levels since the 2007/08 marketing year. Both have fallen back to pre-war levels over the past six months, but volatility remains high relative to historical levels (Figure 1), indicating that significant market uncertainty remains, creating ongoing vulnerability for global food security. Before 2022, volatility (measured by the implied volatility in the wheat futures market) spiked and remained high three times since 2006 — in 2007/08 and then again in 2010/11 and 2012/13 (as indicated in the gray bands in the figure). Markets then remained relatively quiet until the recent spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. High volatility persists due to market uncertainty over the war and the relative tightness in stock levels, which provide little cushion against unforeseen production shortfalls. |
| format | Book Chapter |
| id | CGSpace140063 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1400632025-11-06T04:11:10Z Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility Glauber, Joseph W. production shock policies war coronavirus covid-19 supply stocks agriculture markets trade coronavirinae russia food security ukraine conflicts coronavirus disease wheat prices climate change The Russia-Ukraine war has caused significant price volatility in agricultural markets over the past year — for wheat, in particular, price levels and price volatility reached the highest levels since the 2007/08 marketing year. Both have fallen back to pre-war levels over the past six months, but volatility remains high relative to historical levels (Figure 1), indicating that significant market uncertainty remains, creating ongoing vulnerability for global food security. Before 2022, volatility (measured by the implied volatility in the wheat futures market) spiked and remained high three times since 2006 — in 2007/08 and then again in 2010/11 and 2012/13 (as indicated in the gray bands in the figure). Markets then remained relatively quiet until the recent spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. High volatility persists due to market uncertainty over the war and the relative tightness in stock levels, which provide little cushion against unforeseen production shortfalls. 2023-07-11 2024-03-14T12:08:52Z 2024-03-14T12:08:52Z Book Chapter https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140063 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394 https://www.ifpri.org/blog/assessing-tight-global-wheat-stocks-and-their-role-price-volatility Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Glauber, Joseph W. 2023. Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility. In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security, eds. Joseph Glauber and David Laborde Debucquet. Section One: A Conflict with Global Consequences, Chapter 10, Pp. 52-56. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_10. |
| spellingShingle | production shock policies war coronavirus covid-19 supply stocks agriculture markets trade coronavirinae russia food security ukraine conflicts coronavirus disease wheat prices climate change Glauber, Joseph W. Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| title | Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| title_full | Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| title_fullStr | Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| title_short | Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| title_sort | assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility |
| topic | production shock policies war coronavirus covid-19 supply stocks agriculture markets trade coronavirinae russia food security ukraine conflicts coronavirus disease wheat prices climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140063 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT glauberjosephw assessingtightglobalwheatstocksandtheirroleinpricevolatility |