Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda
Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a major threat to banana production in Rwanda, causing up to 100% yield loss. There are no biological or chemical control measures, and little is known about the potential direction and magnitude of its spread; hence, cultural control efforts are reactive rather than...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Scientific Societies
2023
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139552 |
| _version_ | 1855533249282965504 |
|---|---|
| author | Kilwenge, R. Adewopo, J. Manners, R. Mwizenrwa, C. Kabirigi, M. Gaidashova, S. Schut, M. |
| author_browse | Adewopo, J. Gaidashova, S. Kabirigi, M. Kilwenge, R. Manners, R. Mwizenrwa, C. Schut, M. |
| author_facet | Kilwenge, R. Adewopo, J. Manners, R. Mwizenrwa, C. Kabirigi, M. Gaidashova, S. Schut, M. |
| author_sort | Kilwenge, R. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a major threat to banana production in Rwanda, causing up to 100% yield loss. There are no biological or chemical control measures, and little is known about the potential direction and magnitude of its spread; hence, cultural control efforts are reactive rather than proactive. In this study, we assessed BXW risk under current and projected climates to guide early warning and control by applying the maximum entropy (Maxent) model on 1,022 georeferenced BXW datapoints and 20 environmental variables. We evaluated the significance of variables and mapped potential risk under current and future climates to assess spatial dynamics of the disease distribution. BXW occurrence was reliably predicted (mean validation AUC values ranging from 0.79 to 0.85). Precipitation of the coldest quarter, average maximum monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation were the strongest predictors, which were responsible for 22.1, 13, 12.6, and 9.4% of the observed incidence variability, respectively, while mean temperature of the coldest quarter had the highest gain in isolation. Furthermore, the most susceptible regions (western, northern, and southern Rwanda) were characterized by elevation (1,350 to 2,000 m), annual precipitation (900 to 1,700 mm), and average temperature (14 to 20°C), among other variables, suggesting that a consistent, rainy, and warm climate is more favorable for BXW spread. Under the future climate, the risk was predicted to increase and spread to other regions. We conclude that climate change will likely exacerbate BXW-related losses of banana land area and yield under the influence of temperature and moisture. Our findings support evidence-based targeting of extension service delivery to farmers and national early warning for timely action. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace139552 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Scientific Societies |
| publisherStr | Scientific Societies |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1395522025-12-08T09:54:28Z Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda Kilwenge, R. Adewopo, J. Manners, R. Mwizenrwa, C. Kabirigi, M. Gaidashova, S. Schut, M. banana xanthomonas wilt climate change decision support early warning systems plant diseases surveillance systems risk rwanda Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a major threat to banana production in Rwanda, causing up to 100% yield loss. There are no biological or chemical control measures, and little is known about the potential direction and magnitude of its spread; hence, cultural control efforts are reactive rather than proactive. In this study, we assessed BXW risk under current and projected climates to guide early warning and control by applying the maximum entropy (Maxent) model on 1,022 georeferenced BXW datapoints and 20 environmental variables. We evaluated the significance of variables and mapped potential risk under current and future climates to assess spatial dynamics of the disease distribution. BXW occurrence was reliably predicted (mean validation AUC values ranging from 0.79 to 0.85). Precipitation of the coldest quarter, average maximum monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation were the strongest predictors, which were responsible for 22.1, 13, 12.6, and 9.4% of the observed incidence variability, respectively, while mean temperature of the coldest quarter had the highest gain in isolation. Furthermore, the most susceptible regions (western, northern, and southern Rwanda) were characterized by elevation (1,350 to 2,000 m), annual precipitation (900 to 1,700 mm), and average temperature (14 to 20°C), among other variables, suggesting that a consistent, rainy, and warm climate is more favorable for BXW spread. Under the future climate, the risk was predicted to increase and spread to other regions. We conclude that climate change will likely exacerbate BXW-related losses of banana land area and yield under the influence of temperature and moisture. Our findings support evidence-based targeting of extension service delivery to farmers and national early warning for timely action. 2023-07-01 2024-02-21T08:37:30Z 2024-02-21T08:37:30Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139552 en Limited Access Scientific Societies Kilwenge, R., Adewopo, J., Manners, R., Mwizerwa, C., Kabirigi, M., Gaidashova, S. & Schut, M. (2023). Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence within cropland area of Rwanda. Plant Disease, 107(7), 2017-2026. |
| spellingShingle | banana xanthomonas wilt climate change decision support early warning systems plant diseases surveillance systems risk rwanda Kilwenge, R. Adewopo, J. Manners, R. Mwizenrwa, C. Kabirigi, M. Gaidashova, S. Schut, M. Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda |
| title | Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda |
| title_full | Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda |
| title_fullStr | Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda |
| title_short | Climate-related risk modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) disease incidence in the cropland area of Rwanda |
| title_sort | climate related risk modeling of banana xanthomonas wilt bxw disease incidence in the cropland area of rwanda |
| topic | banana xanthomonas wilt climate change decision support early warning systems plant diseases surveillance systems risk rwanda |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139552 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kilwenger climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda AT adewopoj climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda AT mannersr climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda AT mwizenrwac climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda AT kabirigim climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda AT gaidashovas climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda AT schutm climaterelatedriskmodelingofbananaxanthomonaswiltbxwdiseaseincidenceinthecroplandareaofrwanda |