Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models
In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated wit...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139503 |
| _version_ | 1855517776596172800 |
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| author | Thomas, Timothy S. Robertson, Richard D. |
| author_browse | Robertson, Richard D. Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_facet | Thomas, Timothy S. Robertson, Richard D. |
| author_sort | Thomas, Timothy S. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050.
While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace139503 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1395032025-11-06T05:29:12Z Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models Thomas, Timothy S. Robertson, Richard D. bioeconomic models climate change maize crop modelling agricultural production modelling climate models In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops. 2024-02-16 2024-02-16T21:24:53Z 2024-02-16T21:24:53Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139503 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292055 https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292086 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148024 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134930 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Thomas, Timothy S.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2024. Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2239. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139503 |
| spellingShingle | bioeconomic models climate change maize crop modelling agricultural production modelling climate models Thomas, Timothy S. Robertson, Richard D. Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| title | Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| title_full | Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| title_short | Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| title_sort | climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern africa an updated assessment based on the latest global climate models |
| topic | bioeconomic models climate change maize crop modelling agricultural production modelling climate models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139503 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thomastimothys climatechangeandagricultureineasternandsouthernafricaanupdatedassessmentbasedonthelatestglobalclimatemodels AT robertsonrichardd climatechangeandagricultureineasternandsouthernafricaanupdatedassessmentbasedonthelatestglobalclimatemodels |