Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change
Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropica...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Springer
2024
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139135 |
| _version_ | 1855530372774756352 |
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| author | Pequeno, Diego N. L. Ferreira, Thiago B. Fernandes, José M. C. Singh, Pawan K. Pavan, Willingthon Sonder, Kai Robertson, Richard D. Krupnik, Timothy J. Erenstein, Olaf Asseng, Senthold |
| author_browse | Asseng, Senthold Erenstein, Olaf Fernandes, José M. C. Ferreira, Thiago B. Krupnik, Timothy J. Pavan, Willingthon Pequeno, Diego N. L. Robertson, Richard D. Singh, Pawan K. Sonder, Kai |
| author_facet | Pequeno, Diego N. L. Ferreira, Thiago B. Fernandes, José M. C. Singh, Pawan K. Pavan, Willingthon Sonder, Kai Robertson, Richard D. Krupnik, Timothy J. Erenstein, Olaf Asseng, Senthold |
| author_sort | Pequeno, Diego N. L. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace139135 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1391352025-12-08T09:54:28Z Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change Pequeno, Diego N. L. Ferreira, Thiago B. Fernandes, José M. C. Singh, Pawan K. Pavan, Willingthon Sonder, Kai Robertson, Richard D. Krupnik, Timothy J. Erenstein, Olaf Asseng, Senthold climate change wheat triticum food security plant diseases Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased. 2024-02 2024-02-09T14:33:03Z 2024-02-09T14:33:03Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139135 en https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd970 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0004-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.125915 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.008 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010 Open Access Springer Pequeno, Diego N. L.; Ferreira, Thiago B.; Fernandes, José M. C.; Singh, Pawan K.; Pavan, Willingthon; Sonder, Kai; Robertson, Richard; et al. 2024. Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change. Nature Climate Change 14: 178–183. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01902-2 |
| spellingShingle | climate change wheat triticum food security plant diseases Pequeno, Diego N. L. Ferreira, Thiago B. Fernandes, José M. C. Singh, Pawan K. Pavan, Willingthon Sonder, Kai Robertson, Richard D. Krupnik, Timothy J. Erenstein, Olaf Asseng, Senthold Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| title | Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| title_full | Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| title_short | Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| title_sort | production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change |
| topic | climate change wheat triticum food security plant diseases |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139135 |
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