Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase
An emerging argument is that since humans can readily adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is less need to pursue aggressive emissions mitigation strategies. As temperature adaptation is a function of repeated exposure over time, we need empirical approaches that can depict individuals’ temp...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/138802 |
| _version_ | 1855517716809515008 |
|---|---|
| author | Chen, Shuai Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng Ye, Hai-Jian |
| author_browse | Chen, Shuai Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng Ye, Hai-Jian |
| author_facet | Chen, Shuai Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng Ye, Hai-Jian |
| author_sort | Chen, Shuai |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | An emerging argument is that since humans can readily adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is less need to pursue aggressive emissions mitigation strategies. As temperature adaptation is a function of repeated exposure over time, we need empirical approaches that can depict individuals’ temperature history to rigorously examine this claim. Using a longitudinal dataset representative of China, we construct lifetime temperature exposure unique to each individual based on their birth-dates, birth-locations, and movement history. We show that a 1°C increase in individualized temperature anomalies cause a 2% decrease in 1 standard deviation (S.D.) of well-being, where most of the impacts are driven by “hotter-than-expected” weather. In turn, while the adverse impacts of future temperature changes wane after accommodating for adaptation, acclimatization is unlikely to keep pace with future temperature increases except in the net-zero emissions scenario, indicating that stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts are still needed even in this less-pessimistic scenario. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace138802 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1388022025-10-26T13:01:23Z Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase Chen, Shuai Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng Ye, Hai-Jian temperature differences temperature temperature preferences climate change greenhouse gas emissions An emerging argument is that since humans can readily adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is less need to pursue aggressive emissions mitigation strategies. As temperature adaptation is a function of repeated exposure over time, we need empirical approaches that can depict individuals’ temperature history to rigorously examine this claim. Using a longitudinal dataset representative of China, we construct lifetime temperature exposure unique to each individual based on their birth-dates, birth-locations, and movement history. We show that a 1°C increase in individualized temperature anomalies cause a 2% decrease in 1 standard deviation (S.D.) of well-being, where most of the impacts are driven by “hotter-than-expected” weather. In turn, while the adverse impacts of future temperature changes wane after accommodating for adaptation, acclimatization is unlikely to keep pace with future temperature increases except in the net-zero emissions scenario, indicating that stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts are still needed even in this less-pessimistic scenario. 2023-12 2024-02-01T17:44:47Z 2024-02-01T17:44:47Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/138802 en Open Access Elsevier Chen, Shuai; Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng; and Ye, Hai-Jian. 2023. Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase. iScience 26(12): 108403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.108403 |
| spellingShingle | temperature differences temperature temperature preferences climate change greenhouse gas emissions Chen, Shuai Tan-Soo, Jie-Sheng Ye, Hai-Jian Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| title | Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| title_full | Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| title_fullStr | Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| title_full_unstemmed | Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| title_short | Adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| title_sort | adaptation cannot keep pace with projected temperature increase |
| topic | temperature differences temperature temperature preferences climate change greenhouse gas emissions |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/138802 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chenshuai adaptationcannotkeeppacewithprojectedtemperatureincrease AT tansoojiesheng adaptationcannotkeeppacewithprojectedtemperatureincrease AT yehaijian adaptationcannotkeeppacewithprojectedtemperatureincrease |