Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change

The Ethiopian economy relies predominantly on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme ago-climatic events projected by climate scenarios suggest considerable and growing risks from climate change to the countr...

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Autores principales: Aragie, Emerta A., Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135968
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author Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
author_browse Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
author_facet Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
author_sort Aragie, Emerta A.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The Ethiopian economy relies predominantly on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme ago-climatic events projected by climate scenarios suggest considerable and growing risks from climate change to the country’s agri-food systems and the overall economy. This study assesses the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on the Ethiopian economy to 2040. The results indicate that recurrent climate shocks will lead to a reduction in Ethiopia's cumulative GDP from 2020 to 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. Specifically, extreme weather events could cumulatively cost Ethiopia up to 17 percent (or US$ 534.3 billion) in GDP between 2020 and 2040 compared to a no-climate change baseline. The weight of the economic loss is concentrated in the agricultural production sector, with rural households and poorer households in urban areas being worst affected. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and in hydroelectricity generation are found to be effective in mitigating some of the damage caused by recurrent climate variability.
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spelling CGSpace1359682025-11-06T07:24:55Z Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change Aragie, Emerta A. Gebretsadik, Yohannes rainfed farming agriculture income exports livelihoods rural population climate change agrifood systems extreme weather events water energy computable general equilibrium models The Ethiopian economy relies predominantly on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme ago-climatic events projected by climate scenarios suggest considerable and growing risks from climate change to the country’s agri-food systems and the overall economy. This study assesses the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on the Ethiopian economy to 2040. The results indicate that recurrent climate shocks will lead to a reduction in Ethiopia's cumulative GDP from 2020 to 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. Specifically, extreme weather events could cumulatively cost Ethiopia up to 17 percent (or US$ 534.3 billion) in GDP between 2020 and 2040 compared to a no-climate change baseline. The weight of the economic loss is concentrated in the agricultural production sector, with rural households and poorer households in urban areas being worst affected. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and in hydroelectricity generation are found to be effective in mitigating some of the damage caused by recurrent climate variability. 2023-12-21 2023-12-27T20:12:26Z 2023-12-27T20:12:26Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135968 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Aragie, Emerta; and Gebretsadik, Yohannes. 2023. Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2220. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137048.
spellingShingle rainfed farming
agriculture
income
exports
livelihoods
rural population
climate change
agrifood systems
extreme weather events
water
energy
computable general equilibrium models
Aragie, Emerta A.
Gebretsadik, Yohannes
Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
title Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
title_full Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
title_fullStr Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
title_short Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
title_sort modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change
topic rainfed farming
agriculture
income
exports
livelihoods
rural population
climate change
agrifood systems
extreme weather events
water
energy
computable general equilibrium models
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135968
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