Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]

Dengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many st...

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Main Authors: Jampani, Mahesh, Amarnath, Giriraj, Alahacoon, Niranga
Format: Conference Paper
Language:Inglés
Published: 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135854
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author Jampani, Mahesh
Amarnath, Giriraj
Alahacoon, Niranga
author_browse Alahacoon, Niranga
Amarnath, Giriraj
Jampani, Mahesh
author_facet Jampani, Mahesh
Amarnath, Giriraj
Alahacoon, Niranga
author_sort Jampani, Mahesh
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Dengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate change and dengue prevalence, but evaluating the underlying causing factors is often complex. In this context, we analysed and evaluated the weekly dengue cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last decade for all the districts of Sri Lanka. This study elucidated the seasonality of the occurrence of dengue cases and the risk probability of dengue prevalence. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various climate indicators like rainfall, and further satellite datasets are validated with station datasets for accuracy assessment. We performed integrated statistical analysis to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of dengue cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and rainfall play a critical role in Sri Lanka, especially the high probability of reported dengue prevalence in the western province of Sri Lanka. We also found that monsoonal dynamics, rainfall intensities, and dry and wet conditions could significantly influence the increased risk of dengue. The typical high number of dengue cases occurs between May to August and November to January seasons, depending on the climate zones where the districts are located. Overall, our results aim to feed into understanding the risk probability and seasonal dynamics of dengue prevalence, which can provide insights into the seasonal occurrence of dengue prevalence for control and suitable prevention measures.
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spelling CGSpace1358542024-11-07T09:37:45Z Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only] Jampani, Mahesh Amarnath, Giriraj Alahacoon, Niranga climate variability risk dengue vector-borne diseases rainfall flooding drought satellites remote sensing climatic zones Dengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate change and dengue prevalence, but evaluating the underlying causing factors is often complex. In this context, we analysed and evaluated the weekly dengue cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last decade for all the districts of Sri Lanka. This study elucidated the seasonality of the occurrence of dengue cases and the risk probability of dengue prevalence. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various climate indicators like rainfall, and further satellite datasets are validated with station datasets for accuracy assessment. We performed integrated statistical analysis to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of dengue cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and rainfall play a critical role in Sri Lanka, especially the high probability of reported dengue prevalence in the western province of Sri Lanka. We also found that monsoonal dynamics, rainfall intensities, and dry and wet conditions could significantly influence the increased risk of dengue. The typical high number of dengue cases occurs between May to August and November to January seasons, depending on the climate zones where the districts are located. Overall, our results aim to feed into understanding the risk probability and seasonal dynamics of dengue prevalence, which can provide insights into the seasonal occurrence of dengue prevalence for control and suitable prevention measures. 2023-12-21 2023-12-22T10:54:03Z 2023-12-22T10:54:03Z Conference Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135854 en Open Access Jampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga. 2023. Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]. Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting 2023 (AGU23), San Francisco, CA, USA and Online, 11-15 December 2023. 2p.
spellingShingle climate variability
risk
dengue
vector-borne diseases
rainfall
flooding
drought
satellites
remote sensing
climatic zones
Jampani, Mahesh
Amarnath, Giriraj
Alahacoon, Niranga
Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
title Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
title_full Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
title_fullStr Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
title_full_unstemmed Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
title_short Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
title_sort climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in sri lanka abstract only
topic climate variability
risk
dengue
vector-borne diseases
rainfall
flooding
drought
satellites
remote sensing
climatic zones
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135854
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AT amarnathgiriraj climatevariabilityandextremesimpactsonseasonalityofoccurrenceandriskprobabilityofdengueprevalenceinsrilankaabstractonly
AT alahacoonniranga climatevariabilityandextremesimpactsonseasonalityofoccurrenceandriskprobabilityofdengueprevalenceinsrilankaabstractonly