Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: West, T.A.P., Wunder, Sven, Sills, E.O., Börner, J., Rifai, S.W., Neidermeier, A.N., Kontoleon, A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135558
_version_ 1855514797541425152
author West, T.A.P.
Wunder, Sven
Sills, E.O.
Börner, J.
Rifai, S.W.
Neidermeier, A.N.
Kontoleon, A.
author_browse Börner, J.
Kontoleon, A.
Neidermeier, A.N.
Rifai, S.W.
Sills, E.O.
West, T.A.P.
Wunder, Sven
author_facet West, T.A.P.
Wunder, Sven
Sills, E.O.
Börner, J.
Rifai, S.W.
Neidermeier, A.N.
Kontoleon, A.
author_sort West, T.A.P.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.
format Journal Article
id CGSpace135558
institution CGIAR Consortium
language Inglés
publishDate 2023
publishDateRange 2023
publishDateSort 2023
publisher American Association for the Advancement of Science
publisherStr American Association for the Advancement of Science
record_format dspace
spelling CGSpace1355582025-10-26T13:02:06Z Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation West, T.A.P. Wunder, Sven Sills, E.O. Börner, J. Rifai, S.W. Neidermeier, A.N. Kontoleon, A. tropical forests climate change mitigation conservation Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting. 2023-08-25 2023-12-19T04:19:13Z 2023-12-19T04:19:13Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135558 en Limited Access American Association for the Advancement of Science West, T. A., Wunder, S., Sills, E. O., Börner, J., Rifai, S. W., Neidermeier, A. N., … Kontoleon, A. (2023). Science, 381(6660), 873–877. doi:10.1126/science.ade3535
spellingShingle tropical forests
climate change
mitigation
conservation
West, T.A.P.
Wunder, Sven
Sills, E.O.
Börner, J.
Rifai, S.W.
Neidermeier, A.N.
Kontoleon, A.
Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
title Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
title_full Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
title_fullStr Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
title_full_unstemmed Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
title_short Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
title_sort action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation
topic tropical forests
climate change
mitigation
conservation
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/135558
work_keys_str_mv AT westtap actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation
AT wundersven actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation
AT sillseo actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation
AT bornerj actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation
AT rifaisw actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation
AT neidermeieran actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation
AT kontoleona actionneededtomakecarbonoffsetsfromforestconservationworkforclimatechangemitigation