The modelled costs of adaptation
Key messages ▶ The Adaptation Finance Gap (AFG) Update 2023 has undertaken an updated modelling assessment of the cost of adaptation for developing countries. This analysis has used a suite of global sector assessment models, complemented by new analysis in additional sectors. ▶ The update analysis...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Informe técnico |
| Language: | Inglés |
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United Nations Environment Programme
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134957 |
| _version_ | 1855533248884506624 |
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| author | Watkiss, Paul Bruin, Kelly de Dasgupta, Shouro Ebi, Kristie Hinkel, Jochen Hunt, Alistair Lincke, Daniel Rozenberg, Julie Sayer, Pieter Shariq, Ammara Sulser, Timothy B. Tiggeloven, Timothy Tröltzsch, Jenny Ward, Philip Wreford, Anita |
| author_browse | Bruin, Kelly de Dasgupta, Shouro Ebi, Kristie Hinkel, Jochen Hunt, Alistair Lincke, Daniel Rozenberg, Julie Sayer, Pieter Shariq, Ammara Sulser, Timothy B. Tiggeloven, Timothy Tröltzsch, Jenny Ward, Philip Watkiss, Paul Wreford, Anita |
| author_facet | Watkiss, Paul Bruin, Kelly de Dasgupta, Shouro Ebi, Kristie Hinkel, Jochen Hunt, Alistair Lincke, Daniel Rozenberg, Julie Sayer, Pieter Shariq, Ammara Sulser, Timothy B. Tiggeloven, Timothy Tröltzsch, Jenny Ward, Philip Wreford, Anita |
| author_sort | Watkiss, Paul |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Key messages ▶ The Adaptation Finance Gap (AFG) Update 2023 has undertaken an updated modelling assessment of the cost of adaptation for developing countries. This analysis has used a suite of global sector assessment models, complemented by new analysis in additional sectors. ▶ The update analysis estimates the plausible central costs of adaptation at approximately US$240 billion per year this decade (up to 2030), with a range of US$130–415 billion per year. The central estimate is equivalent to 0.56 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (2021) for all developing countries (or approximately US$33 per capita/per year). ▶ The highest adaptation costs are for river flood protection, infrastructure and coastal protection, and for the regions of East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. ▶ The highest absolute costs are for the upper- and lower-middle-income countries. However, when expressed as a percentage of GDP, adaptation costs are much higher for low-income countries (3.5 per cent) than for lower-middle-income (0.7 per cent) and upper-middle-income (0.5 per cent) countries. ▶ The costs for lower-income and lower-middle-income countries are estimated at US$76 billion per year this decade: the costs for small island developing States (SIDS) alone are estimated at US$4.7 billion per year (0.7 per cent of their GDP) and for least developed countries (LDCs) at US$25 billion per year (2 per cent of their GDP). ▶ The modelled costs of adaptation are estimated to increase significantly by 2050, especially for high-warming scenarios. ▶ These updated costs show a significant increase compared to previous similar studies. This not only reflects the more negative impacts of climate change reported in the literature (for the sectors previously modelled), but also a wider range of risks and sectors. |
| format | Informe técnico |
| id | CGSpace134957 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | United Nations Environment Programme |
| publisherStr | United Nations Environment Programme |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1349572025-02-24T06:49:07Z The modelled costs of adaptation Watkiss, Paul Bruin, Kelly de Dasgupta, Shouro Ebi, Kristie Hinkel, Jochen Hunt, Alistair Lincke, Daniel Rozenberg, Julie Sayer, Pieter Shariq, Ammara Sulser, Timothy B. Tiggeloven, Timothy Tröltzsch, Jenny Ward, Philip Wreford, Anita adaptation climate change climate change adaptation developing countries estimated costs finance infrastructure Key messages ▶ The Adaptation Finance Gap (AFG) Update 2023 has undertaken an updated modelling assessment of the cost of adaptation for developing countries. This analysis has used a suite of global sector assessment models, complemented by new analysis in additional sectors. ▶ The update analysis estimates the plausible central costs of adaptation at approximately US$240 billion per year this decade (up to 2030), with a range of US$130–415 billion per year. The central estimate is equivalent to 0.56 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (2021) for all developing countries (or approximately US$33 per capita/per year). ▶ The highest adaptation costs are for river flood protection, infrastructure and coastal protection, and for the regions of East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. ▶ The highest absolute costs are for the upper- and lower-middle-income countries. However, when expressed as a percentage of GDP, adaptation costs are much higher for low-income countries (3.5 per cent) than for lower-middle-income (0.7 per cent) and upper-middle-income (0.5 per cent) countries. ▶ The costs for lower-income and lower-middle-income countries are estimated at US$76 billion per year this decade: the costs for small island developing States (SIDS) alone are estimated at US$4.7 billion per year (0.7 per cent of their GDP) and for least developed countries (LDCs) at US$25 billion per year (2 per cent of their GDP). ▶ The modelled costs of adaptation are estimated to increase significantly by 2050, especially for high-warming scenarios. ▶ These updated costs show a significant increase compared to previous similar studies. This not only reflects the more negative impacts of climate change reported in the literature (for the sectors previously modelled), but also a wider range of risks and sectors. 2023 2023-12-04T16:12:50Z 2023-12-04T16:12:50Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134957 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150391 https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165 Open Access United Nations Environment Programme Watkiss, P; K de Bruin; S Dasgupta; K Ebi; J Hinkel; A Hunt; D Lincke; J Rozenberg; P Sayer; A Shariq; TB Sulser; T Tiggeloven; J Tröltzsch; P Ward; A Wreford. 2023. Chapter 2. The modelled costs of adaptation. In The Adaptation Finance Gap Update 2023 for UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared. Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed. UNEP. Nairobi. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796 |
| spellingShingle | adaptation climate change climate change adaptation developing countries estimated costs finance infrastructure Watkiss, Paul Bruin, Kelly de Dasgupta, Shouro Ebi, Kristie Hinkel, Jochen Hunt, Alistair Lincke, Daniel Rozenberg, Julie Sayer, Pieter Shariq, Ammara Sulser, Timothy B. Tiggeloven, Timothy Tröltzsch, Jenny Ward, Philip Wreford, Anita The modelled costs of adaptation |
| title | The modelled costs of adaptation |
| title_full | The modelled costs of adaptation |
| title_fullStr | The modelled costs of adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | The modelled costs of adaptation |
| title_short | The modelled costs of adaptation |
| title_sort | modelled costs of adaptation |
| topic | adaptation climate change climate change adaptation developing countries estimated costs finance infrastructure |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134957 |
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